XRP slips below key support, eyes deeper downside

XRP breaks key consolidation as sellers accelerate

XRP fell through a multi-day consolidation band over the weekend, sliding below the $1.93 support area as trading volume picked up and sellers gained control. The price decline comes amid a broader cooling in risk appetite across crypto markets in 2025, with major assets showing uneven strength following the market developments of the prior year.

Traders noted that attempts to reclaim the $2.00 mark earlier in the month have repeatedly failed to produce sustained momentum, leaving the token vulnerable to sharper corrections once intermediate support gave way.

Intraday action and volume dynamics

Price action spent most of the session contained within a roughly $1.90–$1.95 range before the lower bound broke. The decisive move occurred during U.S. hours when XRP slid toward $1.897 on an intraday spike in turnover. Preliminary trade tallies showed roughly 93.8 million tokens exchanged during the move — materially above recent averages — indicating active selling rather than a breakdown on thin liquidity.

As the former $1.93–$1.95 support band flipped into resistance, short-term momentum indicators on hourly charts rotated lower. XRP is trading under its short-term moving averages, and the inability to quickly regain the $1.93 area keeps the near-term technical bias tilted to the downside.

Key price levels and on-chain cost basis considerations

Based on recent on-chain cost-basis metrics and realized supply profiles, market structure suggests the following levels are noteworthy for traders and longer-term holders:

• Immediate resistance: $1.93–$1.95 — the prior consolidation zone now acting as a supply band.
• Near-term support: $1.90 — the first line bulls need to defend to prevent follow-through selling.
• Critical threshold: $1.77 — a clean break below this level would expose substantially thinner realized demand until the $0.80 area.
• Deeper demand area: ~$0.80 — historically a heavier accumulation zone in prior cycles and where realized cost basis density increases materially.

While the $0.80 region represents a longer-horizon floor for many holders, the loss of intermediate support increases the sensitivity of price action to extended downside moves. Markets with concentrated realized cost basis gaps can move quickly when stop liquidity and margin dynamics interact.

What the current pattern implies

The breakdown represents a failure of the recent consolidation, and the pattern suggests sellers are now in control of rallies. Rebounds into the $1.93–$1.95 band have lacked meaningful follow-through, which complicates a bullish case until the token can reclaim the zone on rising volume.

For short-term traders, momentum indicators that are rolling over without clear divergence reinforce the view that upside attempts may remain capped. Conversely, buyers stepping in at $1.90 or above with volume support could help stabilize the market and rebuild a constructive intraday structure.

Macro and market context for 2025

Several broader factors are shaping crypto market behavior in 2025 and are relevant to XRP’s outlook:

• Post-halving market dynamics: Following the 2024 Bitcoin halving and subsequent liquidity shifts, traders have shown heightened sensitivity to on-chain flows and concentrated liquidity pockets.
• Risk-on/risk-off cycles: Traditional markets and macro policy developments have influenced risk appetite in crypto, creating periods of selective strength among large-cap altcoins rather than synchronized rallies.
• Regulatory clarity and institutional flows: Ongoing regulatory developments and evolving institutional participation continue to shape demand dynamics for major tokens, including griefs and tailwinds for speculative flows.

In this environment, tokens that lose key technical levels may experience sharper corrections because buyers re-evaluate positions in light of cross-market uncertainty. For XRP specifically, market participants remain attentive to order flow details and on-chain supply distribution as inputs to positioning decisions.

Trading implications and risk management

Participants should consider a structured approach to managing exposure amid the present technical weakness:

• Define risk: Use clear stop-loss levels around tactical support (for example, a break under $1.77 for shorter-term positions) to limit downside exposure.
• Watch volume confirmation: Recovery attempts only become technically meaningful when accompanied by above-average buy-side volume that reclaims $1.93.
• Scale entries: Consider staggered accumulation if targeting lower realized-cost zones, rather than single-size entries that can be adversely affected by volatility.
• Monitor derivatives: Open interest and funding rates in derivatives markets can signal whether sellers are carrying directional conviction or whether rallies are likely to be short-lived.

Traders and risk managers should also account for wider market signals — such as movements in Bitcoin and other large-cap assets — as these often precede meaningful directional shifts in altcoin markets.

Scenario planning

Market participants can map out several scenarios based on near-term price action:

• Bullish reversal: A decisive reclaim of $1.93 on rising volume and a move above $2.00 would reduce immediate downside risk and could attract fresh momentum trades.
• Consolidation near current levels: If price holds roughly between $1.77 and $1.95, expect range-bound activity with shorter swings and limited trend conviction.
• Downside extension: A clean break below $1.77 would likely accelerate selling toward the thin-demand band around $0.80, where historical accumulation becomes more apparent.

Market sentiment and on-chain signals

Sentiment measures have softened as buyers failed to capitalize on intraday rebounds, and on-chain indicators show a thinning of realized supply at intermediate levels. That combination increases the probability of sharper moves if sellers intensify activity or if macro news prompts a broad risk-off reaction.

However, historical accumulation areas and long-term holder behavior can act as a counterbalance if prices approach deeper support zones. Investors with multi-year time horizons may view pullbacks as buying opportunities, but will likely scale exposure in measured tranches to manage timing risk.

What to watch next

Key datapoints and events that investors should monitor in the coming days and weeks:

• Price action around $1.90 and $1.77 — these levels will inform whether the market stabilizes or risks a deeper correction.
• Volume patterns on rebounds — rising onboarding volume would be required to flip the current resistance back into support.
• Broader crypto market movements — especially Bitcoin and large-cap altcoin behavior, which often drive directional bias.
• On-chain flow metrics and concentrated supply pockets — large transfers or distribution from significant holders can presage volatility.

Conclusion

XRP’s recent breakdown below the $1.93 support band highlights the token’s technical fragility in the short term. Elevated selling volume and failed rebounds point to a cautious near-term outlook, with $1.90 and $1.77 serving as immediate levels to watch. A decisive breach below $1.77 could open a path toward the $0.80 demand area, while any sustained recovery will require rapid reclamation of $1.93 on growing volume.

In the evolving 2025 market landscape, traders and investors should combine technical levels with on-chain and macro signals to manage risk and position size. Careful scenario planning and adherence to risk controls will remain essential as liquidity pockets and sentiment continue to drive unpredictable intraday swings.

For up-to-date market data and trading tools, traders can consult their preferred exchange dashboards and on-chain analytics platforms to tailor strategies to changing conditions.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.