Bitcoin continues to prove its title as the king of volatility, making investors restless. From an impressive $80k, BTC suddenly fell to $76k in just 48 hours, sparking controversy: Is this just a slight slip or the start of a second crypto winter?
Amidst the conflicting information, this article will expose the 3 main reasons for BTC’s plunge, update hot forecasts from market sharks, and a technical – macro perspective so you don’t get lost in the price storm.
Current Bitcoin Market
Looking back at the past 3 months, BTC is like a roller coaster that has made many investors stop in their tracks.
The Painful Fall
From its peak of $109k in January 2025, Bitcoin lost nearly 30% of its value in just 3 months, even hitting a low of $74k in early April. Although it has now recovered slightly around $77.5k, the daily fluctuation range of $3.5k shows that the market is extremely hesitant.
Technical Alert Map
- MACD: Signal Line Crosses Down, Showing Exhaustion
- RSI: Oscillating Around 45, Indicating Bears Are Dominating
- Death Cross Lurking: 50-Day MA Is About to Cross 200-Day MA – History That Made BTC Lose 60% of Its Value in 2022
Real World Fluctuations
Global inflationary pressures, Fed interest rate policies, and new tariff barriers from the US are adding to market uncertainty. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe continue to weigh on risky assets like crypto.
These factors force investors to carefully consider the potential for short-term profits and risks.
Latest Bitcoin Price Predictions: Opportunity or Risk for Investors?
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing conflicting predictions about Bitcoin price from experts. Here are the most prominent analyses:
Deep Bearish Outlook: Can Bitcoin Return to 3-Year-Old Level?
Many experts are cautious, typically the notable comment from Mike McGlone (Bloomberg). He warned that Bitcoin is at risk of plunging to the $10,000 price range – a low not seen since 2020. The reason given is the weakening of growth momentum and selling pressure in the market.
Optimists: Expecting to Double in Value
Contrary to the above view, many analysts such as Tracy Jin (MEXC) still maintain their faith in the king of cryptocurrencies. Accordingly, BTC can stabilize around 76,000 – 78,000 USD in the short term and break out to 156,600 USD if favorable factors such as macroeconomic recovery and strong cash flow from the forex market into crypto are converged.
Why are there two opposing opinions?
This difference stems from the interpretation of technical data and market psychology:
- The bears focus on short-term weakening signals: low trading volume, reduced volatility.
- The bulls are optimistic thanks to long-term factors: controlled inflation, Bitcoin acceptance trend in large funds.
These varied forecasts reflect the crypto market’s inherent uncertainty—offering both opportunity and risk for investors.
Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price
Bitcoin price is affected by many complex factors, from macro to market behavior. Detailed analysis:
Impact from Global Policy
- Monetary decisions from major powers: The moves of the Fed (US) or ECB (EU) on interest rates, economic stimulus packages often create a domino effect on the crypto market.
- International trade conflicts: Geopolitical tensions cause investors to prioritize withdrawing from risky assets like Bitcoin, leading to selling pressure.
Important Technical Signals
- Trend prediction indicators: Moving average crossovers (e.g. death cross), broken support/resistance levels often signal market reversals.
- Lessons from history: In June 2022, the appearance of a death cross caused Bitcoin to lose 70% of its value in the third quarter.
Market Sentiment
- Media Influence: Billionaire Elon Musk’s statements or new government regulations on crypto can trigger sudden price fluctuations.
- Horse Effect: Panic (sell-offs) or over-expectations (buy-outs) often push prices away from their true value.
Global Money Flows
- Competition between investment channels: When the stock market, gold or real estate recovers, some capital often moves away from Bitcoin.
- Inflation and economic instability: In the context of fiat currency depreciation, Bitcoin is often seen as a risk-hedging tool.
Risks and Opportunities in the Crypto Market
In a highly volatile market, risk and opportunity go hand in hand:
Risks:
- Sudden price drops can lead to significant capital losses.
- Economic policy shifts can trigger broader market sell-offs.
- Negative investor sentiment may snowball into mass panic selling.
Opportunities:
- Pullbacks to strong support zones can present excellent long-term buying opportunities.
- Historical trends show that markets often rebound sharply after deep corrections—offering high returns for well-timed investments.
Key Takeaways for Investors
To navigate this volatile market effectively, investors should keep the following in mind:
- Don’t Trust Your Feelings: Look at the chart as your friend, analyze RSI or MACD daily instead of listening to “hot tips” on social networks.
- Prepare for Fire: Set stop-loss at maximum tolerance (eg: -15%), diversify from BTC, ETH to meme coins to spread risk.
- Learn How to Surf: Closely monitor the Fed’s moves, read the monthly CPI report, and remember – economic news is the most powerful weapon!
Final Remarks
In summary, Bitcoin market is currently navigating unpredictable waters due to the complex interplay of technical indicators, macroeconomic trends, and investor
sentiment. While some experts warn of a steep decline to $10,000, others foresee a powerful rally toward $156,600.
If you’re determined to “take the plunge,” choose a reputable exchange like MEXC – which offers a full suite of advanced analytics tools, rock-bottom transaction fees, and “one-click” execution speeds. Remember: In the crypto world, knowledge and awareness are the strongest armor!
FAQs
Why is Bitcoin dropping right now?
It’s not natural that BTC has evaporated 5% in just 2 days! This plunge comes from 3 main reasons: First, technical indicators such as MACD and RSI are weakening, signaling that the bullish momentum has exhausted itself. Second, the Fed’s continuous tightening of interest rates and global inflation have investors holding their breath. Finally, the US tariff trade tension is like the last straw.
Is this Bitcoin crash temporary or the start of a long-term downtrend?
Experts are fiercely divided! The optimistic bulls believe that this is just a slight fall after the 2025 Halving, preparing for a new rally to 150k USD. Meanwhile, the bears warn of a “death cross” (when the MA 50 cuts the MA 200) – a scenario that caused BTC to lose 60% of its value in 2018. They predict that BTC could fall freely to 10k USD if history repeats itself.
Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?
The answer lies in your strategy! If you are a HODLer: This could be a rare opportunity to buy at the bottom for the long term, especially when Bitcoin ETFs are attracting strong interest. If you are a trader: Wait for a reversal confirmation signal or place a smart stop loss at 75k to avoid burning your account.
Risk Disclaimer
The information in this article does not represent MEXC’s official stance or investment advice. Given the highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, investors are encouraged to carefully evaluate market fluctuations, project fundamentals, and financial risks before making trading decisions.
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