A Bitcoin Story: A Set Up for the Next Cycle

In bitcoin, over the last few years of the bull cycle, we have had many ups and downs in the market. We have seen many events that have made Bitcoin very volatile including the China mining ban, as well as many lenders in the space going into bankruptcy. Both of these events had great effects on the space as a whole. It has shaken confidence within our industry. In fact, many people outside of this industry believe that this is the nail in the coffin for Bitcoin and the crypto industry as a whole. I’m writing this to explain why those critics are wrong and why this might be one of the best accumulation zones you may ever have as an individual in this space. 

What is Happening in the Crypto Space

I think everyone has seen the crash in digital assets in 2022. We understand that Luna, 3 Arrows Capital and FTX all blowing up have had huge market impacts which most of us did not see coming. For those who understand the technology, we know that this wasn’t because of bad technology. It is bad business practices that led to the collapse of these huge players in our space. I am being asked, what is the bull case for Bitcoin and other digital currencies in the coming next few years? Why is now a good time to be invested? Hopefully, these facts show you why it’s important to think long-term.

The first thing to bring to your attention is the timeline of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving. The Halving or Halvening (depending on what side of the debate you are on how to say it) is structurally what has always set up every crypto bull run that we have ever experienced. It is one of the most important factors why you should be keeping an eye on the date March-June 2024. This is the estimated date of when we will experience the next halving cycle and the block reward will be cut from 6.25 to 3.15. This date is important to make sure that you are accumulating during heavy selling days going forward as it will make for great buying opportunities for bitcoin and thus every other crypto asset.

The Timeline of Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin usually finds a top 1.5 years after the halving so that makes me expect that in late 2025 we might see another cycle top. Although the past never is the exact same as the future it is important to see patterns and this has been a pattern in our industry for many years that has continued to play out many times over. Not only that but the fundamentals of Bitcoin continue to get stronger and stronger the closer we get to the halving date. 

The Timeline of Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin Price in black and the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges in blue

This Chart shows the Bitcoin Price in black and the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges in blue. According to this chart and other estimates, approximately less than 2.25 million Bitcoin are left on exchange.  The question is why does this matter? Well, it matters for two reasons.

The first reason is more people are holding their coins for the long term. Reason two is that more people are fighting to buy much less Bitcoin than just 2 years ago. Less supply on the market means that more buying power has a much greater effect on the price of those coins that are for sale. The fewer coins there are the more likely the sellers will demand higher prices to sell those coins to others. This is a great setup for Bitcoin over the next few years unless we see a big inflow of bitcoin going on to exchanges. I expect this not to happen very quickly due to losing trust in some of these institutions that have gone bankrupt over the last year. 

Next, I want you to take a look at the two charts and see the highlighted areas. 

Before you keep reading anon, tell me what you see? 

The first picture is from November 2018 – April 2019. This is the time period where we broke out of the downtrend and finally broke the bear market. This was the first major reversal that would start to kick off the hype for the next halving. We were approximately 1 full year away from the halving that kicked off in May of 2020.

The second chart is November 2022 all the way to today’s price chart. If we project out into the next halving in 2024 we are only 1 year and 3 months away from the approximate halving in 2024. This could be the next start of the trend for Bitcoin and digital asset markets that lead us into the next halving. 

Anyone who has studied the cycles knows that there are still many ups and downs to go from here. However, I do believe that within the time before the halving, there will be more drama and we might go lower than we are today, but I am here to tell you anon, the future looks bright if you can be mentally strong enough to believe in your convictions over the long term. Those who are buyers during the crashes to come will have great opportunities over the next few years. Those who were afraid and panicked and sold are the ones who will be regretting their decision in the years to come. Technology is only growing and will become more important in our lives as we move into an age with ever-increasing importance for digital assets. 

Closing Thoughts

If you are still reading anon, please do your own research as I am never 100% certain about anything. But, I do know that I am keeping in mind everything I have mentioned to you in this article. I am willing to call my shot and put my money where my mouth is but don’t take my word for it. Hopefully, you will get to see it for yourself.

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter you can find me at @chasebrookshear. I will keep my DM’s open! If anyone has anything they would like to discuss, or think they have a better thesis, let’s hear about it!

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