Why doesn’t Asia’s largest Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet buy the dip?

This article is reposted from Chaincatcher.

Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher

Original link: https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2228557

As the cryptocurrency market enters a pullback window, the actions of Bitcoin treasury companies have shown a clear divergence. The giant Strategy announced last week that it spent $962.7 million to increase its holdings by 10,624 Bitcoins at a price of $90,615 each. In contrast, the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury company, Metaplanet, has come to a halt, having not made any additional purchases for ten consecutive weeks since September 30.

Metaplanet, a Japanese publicly listed company hailed by the market as the “Asian version of MicroStrategy,” was once a radical representative in the DAT field. Since launching its reserve plan in April 2024, the company has rapidly accumulated over 30,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $2.75 billion.

However, since the fourth quarter, Bitcoin prices have pulled back nearly 30% from their historical high of $126,000. While the market generally expected treasury companies to buy on the dip, Metaplanet unexpectedly hit the pause button after completing its last purchase on September 29, shifting its short-term capital focus to stock buybacks.

DAT: From Aggressive Accumulation to Risk Control Priority

Data shows that the total market value of digital asset treasury stocks in the fourth quarter has plummeted from $150 billion to $73.5 billion, with most companies’ mNAV falling below 1x. According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency treasury (DAT) companies listed in the U.S. and Canada have seen their stock prices drop significantly this year, with a median decline of 43%, and some companies experiencing declines of over 99%.

Galaxy has warned that Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a “Darwinian phase,” where stock premiums collapse, leverage turns downward, and DAT stocks trade at a discount, with the core mechanisms of their once-thriving business models collapsing.

In this market context, ETHZilla, another second-tier treasury company, recently announced it would redeem a total of $516 million in convertible bonds early. This move is seen as a positive signal to simplify capital structure, enhance financial flexibility, and reduce the risk of high-interest liabilities during market lows.

Metaplanet’s actions resonate with this. Currently, the company’s outstanding debt is $304 million, theoretically backed by 9 times its Bitcoin assets as repayment security, yet the company still chooses to pause its purchases, aligning with the industry trend of shifting from aggressive accumulation to risk control priority in the current DAT landscape.

Stock Price Pressure and Tactical Adjustments Under Conservative Accounting

Previously, influenced by its Bitcoin holding strategy, Metaplanet’s stock price soared from $20 in April 2024 to a peak of $1,930 in June 2025. Although the stock price has significantly retreated over 70% since the second half of the year, it still recorded an overall increase of over 20% this year, stabilizing around $420, with a total market value of approximately $3 billion.

In response to the continued decline in stock price, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich publicly addressed the stock price fluctuations on October 2. He cited Amazon’s case during the internet bubble, emphasizing that fundamentals and stock prices often diverge, and reiterated that the company would continue to accumulate Bitcoin.

Earlier, he stated in September that if the net asset value fell below the market value (mNAV below 1x), continuing to issue new shares would “mathematically destroy value,” which would be detrimental to the company’s BTC yield. The company would prioritize evaluating options such as preferred shares and stock buybacks.

Thus, when facing a net asset value drop in early October, Metaplanet quickly took action, first announcing the authorization to repurchase up to 150 million shares and securing a $500 million credit line. Subsequently, it raised $100 million by mortgaging its Bitcoin assets for purchasing more Bitcoin, expanding revenue operations, and repurchasing shares, with some funds also allocated for revenue operations. Currently, the company’s mNAV has rebounded to over 1x.

This pause in accumulation can be seen as a tactical protection of its stock price and balance sheet health, prioritizing the value of existing shareholders rather than blindly expanding the balance sheet.

Additionally, halting purchases is also a strategy to avoid risks posed by Japan’s conservative accounting standards. Given its average Bitcoin cost of approximately $108,000, the company has accumulated over $500 million in unrealized losses on its books. To prevent excessive short-term profit and loss impacts, it has chosen to proactively avoid exacerbating this book impairment risk.

Building an Asian “Moat” Using Low-Interest Rate Advantages?

On the surface, pausing purchases appears defensive; however, Metaplanet’s true strategic intent may lie in upgrading and innovating its capital structure.

The company’s third-quarter financial report shows that its sales reached 2.401 billion yen, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 94%; operating profit was 1.339 billion yen, up 64%; net profit was 12.7 billion yen; and net assets were 532.9 billion yen, an increase of 165%. Notably, the options business contributed $16.28 million in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 115%, covering daily operating and interest costs.

Building on this, Metaplanet is also attempting to emulate Strategy by planning to issue preferred shares similar to STRC to acquire capital more efficiently.

The company plans to launch two new digital credit instruments, “Mercury” and “Mars,” with “Mercury” offering a 4.9% yen yield, approximately ten times the yield of Japanese bank deposits. Of this, 73% of the funds are designated for Bitcoin accumulation, including $107 million for direct purchases and $12 million for options trading. This way, the company can bypass equity dilution and shift towards low-cost debt leverage, which is highly attractive to local investors.

Furthermore, since Japan does not allow market sales mechanisms (similar to BitMine’s current ATM model), preventing publicly listed companies from “real-time dumping” stocks in the secondary market protects investors from dilution shocks. Metaplanet has cleverly circumvented this restriction by adopting a mobile strike warrant mechanism (MSW), while retaining the core advantage of flexible fundraising.

MSW is essentially a special stock acquisition warrant, characterized by a non-fixed exercise price that is dynamically adjusted periodically. Typically, every few trading days (Metaplanet’s early series was every 3 trading days), the exercise price is reset to the average closing price of the previous days, such as the simple moving average of the last three days. Thus, when warrant holders choose to exercise their warrants, the company issues new common stock at a price close to the current market price to raise funds.

In the future, the company may integrate this mechanism into its perpetual preferred stock product, Mercury: preferred shareholders can convert to common stock at a dynamic price through terms similar to MSW, making the entire financing process smoother and more controllable.

At the same time, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has confirmed that the company will not launch similar products in Japan within the next 12 months, providing Metaplanet with a valuable 12-month first-mover advantage in the market.

The company successfully issued $150 million in Class B perpetual preferred shares on November 20, and its financing strategy has begun to take shape. This series of actions indicates that Metaplanet is leveraging Japan’s low-interest-rate environment to build a unique financing “moat” for structural and sustainable expansion.

Local Advantages and MSCI Review

In fact, Metaplanet’s core value lies in the unique Alpha provided by its Japanese ecological environment:

On one hand, the continuous depreciation of the yen strengthens Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge, and Metaplanet’s Bitcoin reserves provide a viable way for local Japanese investors to combat the decline in yen purchasing power.

On the other hand, the tax-exempt advantage of Japan’s individual savings account (NISA) has attracted 63,000 local Japanese shareholders to Metaplanet. Compared to the 55% capital gains tax on directly holding cryptocurrency assets, investors can gain indirect exposure to BTC by buying Metaplanet stock at a lower cost through NISA.

For this reason, Metaplanet has gained recognition from international institutions, with Capital Group increasing its stake to 11.45%, becoming Metaplanet’s largest shareholder. Currently, the top five shareholders also include MMXX Capital, Vanguard, Evolution Capital, and Invesco; Syz Capital partner Richard Byworth has publicly divested from MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETFs to invest in Metaplanet, believing the latter has lower financing costs and higher return elasticity.

An industry observer pointed out that companies like Metaplanet must prioritize financial resilience during downturns to maintain long-term accumulation goals.

However, despite being beneficial for structural health in the long run, Metaplanet still faces potential short-term selling pressure. For instance, the MSCI index review affecting Strategy also impacts Metaplanet, which was included in the MSCI Japan Index this February. If it is removed due to a high proportion of Bitcoin assets, it could trigger a wave of passive fund selling.

Conclusion

In summary, Metaplanet’s pause in Bitcoin accumulation is not a failure of strategy or a capitulation to the market; it can be viewed as a strategic buildup based on risk and efficiency considerations, marking the maturation of the DAT sector from aggressive accumulation to risk control priority.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has stated that evaluating DAT companies based on mNAV is incorrect, as this valuation method does not consider the lifecycle of publicly listed companies. Most of the reasons for DAT trading at a discount are certain, while the reasons for premiums are often uncertain. Looking ahead, the price differences among treasury companies will become more pronounced, and Metaplanet may be in the process of reconstructing its valuation system.

Disclaimer: This article is reposted content and reflects the opinions of the original author. This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.