On November 28, 2025, CNBC’s Crypto World aired an exclusive interview with MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, boldly titled “Strategy’s Michael Saylor weighs in on whether bitcoin’s four-year cycle is dead.”
In his signature mix of conviction and data-driven analysis, Saylor declared that Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is effectively over. In its place, he argues, emerges a “structural demand era” powered not by supply halvings but by the architecture of global finance.
This claim is not baseless. It stems from Saylor’s systematic observation of today’s market: the supply shock of halving events has become negligible, while institutional-grade capital flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s price formation mechanism. Bitcoin is no longer a speculative gadget—it is becoming a form of “digital sovereign debt” embedded in global liquidity.
I. Declaring the Death of the Four-Year Cycle: A Historical Review
Since Bitcoin’s birth in 2009, its price movements did appear to follow a familiar “halving → bull market → correction” four-year rhythm. The first three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 acted like a “supply nuke,” triggering explosive rallies.
However, after the fifth halving in April 2024, this pattern began to loosen. Although 2025 has remained broadly upward, the market lacks the dramatic speculative peaks that earlier cycles displayed. Expectations of a classic post-halving boom failed to materialize.
A more accurate metaphor might be:
“Halvings used to be nuclear bombs; now they are firecrackers—barely audible against the roar of the waves.”
This structural change is not accidental. Bitcoin’s daily settlement value and actual trading volume (excluding wash trades) have expanded dramatically, now commonly reaching tens to hundreds of billions in real volume. In such a liquidity environment, the next halving (expected in 2028) will only remove tens of millions of dollars worth of supply per day—a negligible figure compared with true market turnover.
In other words, the “supply shock” narrative is being diluted by global liquidity, institutional participation, and the transformation of market structure. As many analysts now note, the forces moving Bitcoin are no longer cyclical stories but real demand, institutional flows, and global capital conditions.
This is not a pause in the traditional cycle. It is a structural shift: from halving-driven to demand-driven.
II. The Rise of the Structural Demand Era: Institutional Capital Redefines Pricing
1. Banks Enter the Arena: Custody, Credit, and Collateral Infrastructure
Saylor highlighted a striking fact: nearly half of the top ten U.S. banks have begun accepting IBIT as collateral and issuing credit against it within the past six months.
At the same time, institutions like Charles Schwab and Citigroup announced that by the first half of 2026, they will fully support Bitcoin custody and lending. This marks a historic turning point: Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset into a recognized collateral asset.
In global finance, only collateral assets participate in structural demand loops. Real estate, government bonds, and equities have deep markets precisely because they support credit expansion. Saylor summarizes the impact succinctly:
“Every $50 billion of credit issued by the banking system overwhelms the $20 million daily impact of the halving.”
Thus, Bitcoin’s demand no longer depends on “more people choosing to buy it,” but on how deeply the financial system integrates it.
2. Capital Inflows Following Regulatory Green Lights: ETFs and Derivatives
After the SEC loosened restrictions on Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives, IBIT’s open interest surged from $10 billion to $50 billion in just a few weeks. These are not retail speculators but pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and insurers—long-term allocators.
Bitcoin is rapidly becoming a default investable asset, no longer reliant on narratives to attract capital.
This shift coincides with a major macro backdrop: in 2025, the U.S. government adopted an openly supportive stance toward digital assets. The President, Treasury Secretary, SEC, and CFTC all signaled institutional friendliness. Combined with the adoption of fair-value accounting, public companies can now fully reflect Bitcoin gains on balance sheets—leading to a surge in corporate interest.
3. Corporate and Institutional Adoption Accelerates
When MicroStrategy added Bitcoin to its balance sheet in 2020, it was seen as an outlier. By late 2025, more than 200 companies followed, a number still growing.
This is not imitation; it is capital efficiency. Faced with an asset compounding at 50% annually versus one growing 5%, corporate treasuries are making increasingly rational decisions.
This is also why the halving cycle is losing influence: Enterprise-level demand is durable, structural, and low-noise—unlike retail capital.
III. Digital Capital vs. Digital Finance: Two Diverging Economic Systems
Saylor emphasized a widely overlooked point: crypto’s future is not a single track but two parallel economic systems with entirely different logics.
1. Digital Capital (Bitcoin)
Functions:
- Store of value
- Collateral asset
- Institutional allocation
- Base collateral for issuing “digital credit”
The focus here is not trading but credit formation—issuing high-yield digital debt backed by BTC. This has become MicroStrategy’s core business and what Saylor sees as the next major narrative of 2026.
Bitcoin competes not with dollars or stablecoins but with:
- Gold
- Real estate
- Stock indices
- Private equity and other 20th-century capital vehicles
2. Digital Finance (Altcoins, Stablecoins, Tokenized Assets)
Functions:
- Payments and settlement
- Tokenized securities
- Global stablecoin networks
- Various PoS-based financial applications
This domain resembles tech stocks—competitive, fast-evolving, and innovation-driven. The IPO wave of Circle and others, the worldwide expansion of stablecoins, and policy support for tokenization all drive the 2025–2026 boom.
Stablecoins represent a victory for digital finance, but they do not threaten Bitcoin’s role as digital capital. The two satisfy fundamentally different needs and are not zero-sum.
IV. The Explosion of Digital Credit: The Key Inflection Point in Bitcoin’s Financialization
Why is digital credit poised to become the next major narrative? Because people want yield, and digital credit offers far more than traditional markets. In a 4% money-market environment, digital credit instruments can pay around 10%.
The mechanism is straightforward: digital credit is debt issued against BTC collateral, and as long as Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains upward, its attractiveness is self-reinforcing.
Corporate and banking integration is already underway:
- MicroStrategy has issued roughly $8 billion in digital credit.
- MetaPlanet (Japan) and Strive have joined the field.
- Banks are beginning to accept BTC as collateral, magnifying the model’s scale.
This places Bitcoin into a macro framework resembling sovereign bonds + collateral + credit expansion, a clear path toward financial maturation. But challenges remain. Digital credit’s rapid growth demands robust risk management. Bitcoin’s volatility, regulatory uncertainties, and collateral valuation pressures are real risks. Saylor’s optimism does not eliminate these, and the durability of this ecosystem depends on a stable regulatory framework.
V. Outlook and Warnings: From the End of the Cycle to Continuous Growth
Saylor’s “death announcement” is not a dismissal of Bitcoin’s history—it is a declaration of a new epoch. 2025 has already demonstrated that while halvings still carry symbolic value, their market impact is now overshadowed by institutional flows.
In the coming years, demand—not supply—will set prices. ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and sovereign reserve experiments will continue pushing Bitcoin toward its role as a digital sovereign bond.
But the transition comes with risks. Regulatory shifts, inflation pressures, and geopolitical tensions may amplify volatility. For investors, this suggests a strategic shift: from chasing cycles to building long-term exposure.
In the structural demand era, Bitcoin is no longer a bet—it is becoming a global liquidity anchor. The next four years may not bring a “four-year cycle,” but they may usher in unprecedented growth potential.
Disclaimer: This article is reposted content and reflects the opinions of the original author. This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.
Join MEXC and Get up to $10,000 Bonus!
Sign Up
