Post-Thanksgiving Crypto Setups Suggest Decisive December Move

Market snapshot: a pause after a bruising November

Cryptocurrency markets have started to show signs of stabilization following a broad November sell-off. Key momentum indicators, on-chain measures of selling pressure and market liquidity have shifted from deeply oversold conditions toward a more neutral stance. As traders enter the holiday season, these technical and flow-based signals are drawing comparisons with similar post-Thanksgiving setups observed in prior years.

Which indicators have turned

Multiple market signals that were bearish earlier in the month have softened or flipped, suggesting that aggressive selling may have eased.

• Momentum indicators: Average RSI readings across major assets have moved up from oversold levels, while normalized MACD measures show increasing positive crossovers for a growing share of tokens.
• On-chain flow metrics: Taker cumulative volume delta (Taker CVD) and similar measures of exchange flow have shifted toward neutral territory after a period dominated by sell-side activity.
• Sentiment metrics: Fear-based gauges remain subdued relative to multi-year highs, but have retraced from extreme lows earlier in November.

Why this matters

Collectively, these elements suggest seller exhaustion rather than the start of a sustained bullish regime. That sets the market up for a concentrated move in December rather than extended rangebound action — the direction of which will be driven by liquidity and macro headlines.

Comparing 2025 to previous post-Thanksgiving patterns

There is a recognizable pattern that appeared after Thanksgiving in both 2022 and 2023: an initial, sharp drawdown followed by a period of stabilization, and then a decisive move in December. While the market context differed each time — ranging from deep bear consolidation to an early bull push driven by structural demand — the technical footprint around Thanksgiving showed similar features.

• 2022: After significant industry stressors, selling subsided and the market moved sideways into late December as liquidity remained thin.
• 2023: Expectation and early flows tied to institutional products supported a sharper Santa rally once liquidity conditions began to improve.

In late 2025 the market looks to be replaying a comparable script: November’s selling pressure has largely abated, momentum indicators are recovering, and market depth is only beginning to normalize.

Liquidity and market-maker dynamics

Liquidity remains a central theme for possible December outcomes. Market makers reduced balance sheets after mid-year and October shocks, and order-book depth continued to show fragility through November. When liquidity is impaired, even modest inflows or outflows can trigger outsized price moves.

Key dynamics to monitor:

• Order-book depth on major exchanges and large OTC desks.
• Funding rates and leverage usage across perpetual futures, which can exacerbate directional moves.
• On-chain collateral and borrowing behavior that indicate whether holders are leveraging rather than selling.

Hidden leverage and downside risk

Platforms reporting high ratios of BTC used as collateral for loans instead of being sold directly can mute immediate selling pressure, but they also create latent leverage that could amplify volatility if liquidations occur. This balance between suppressed visible selling and potential forced deleveraging is a defining feature of the current cycle.

Institutional flows and macro headlines — the likely catalysts

Given that spot liquidity is fragile, institutional flows and macroeconomic signals will probably be the deciding factors for December’s trajectory. Two inputs deserve focused attention:

• ETF and institutional demand: Inflows into institutional-grade products have a disproportionate market impact when books are thin. Even moderate net buying can produce sharp price appreciation.
• Macro policy and data: Comments from major central banks and macro releases in early December 2025 — particularly around U.S. interest-rate expectations — will influence risk asset appetite and capital flows into crypto.

Historically, the interaction of these elements around year-end has created either a concentrated rally or a quiet consolidation depending on which force dominated.

Possible December scenarios

Based on the current constellation of metrics, two headline scenarios are plausible for December 2025:

• Consolidation outcome: If liquidity remains constrained and macro signals are mixed, markets may move sideways through December with occasional volatility spikes — a repeat of a deep consolidation similar to prior years when flows were scarce.
• Sharp directional move: If central bank rhetoric softens and institutional flows accelerate, the market could see a short, sharp rally as liquidity conditions briefly improve and buyers exploit thin depth.

The magnitude of either outcome will be amplified by the low depth environment — meaning relatively modest net flows could translate into large percentage moves.

What traders and investors should watch now

For participants preparing position strategies in late 2025, monitoring a handful of indicators will be crucial:

• Order-book liquidity and spread dynamics across major exchanges.
• Net flows into institutional products and custody volumes that reflect genuine new demand.
• Funding rates and open interest trends that reveal leverage accumulation or unwinding.
• Macro calendar events and central bank commentary scheduled for early December.

Keeping an eye on these inputs will help distinguish between a low-volatility grind and a liquidity-driven price move.

On-chain pulse: supply behavior and holder resilience

On-chain metrics continue to tell a nuanced story. Long-term holder cohorts are often less inclined to sell during interim volatility, while exchange balances and short-term holder activity provide early warnings of renewed selling pressure.

• Exchange flows: A sustained net inflow to exchanges increases near-term sell risk, while outflows can signal accumulation.
• Realized profit and loss: Rising realized gains across addresses can change behavioral dynamics as more holders enter profit territory.
• Concentration metrics: The distribution of supply across large addresses influences how quickly the market can absorb large orders.

Risk management amid uncertainty

With markets likely to produce a significant move in either direction, risk management remains paramount. Practical steps market participants consider include:

• Adjusting position size to account for potentially elevated intraday volatility.
• Using staggered entry and exit orders to avoid adverse fills in thin liquidity environments.
• Monitoring funding costs and keeping margin buffers for leveraged positions.
• Reviewing hedging options based on expected macro events and institutional flow windows.

Looking ahead: what 2025 year-end could mean for 2026

The character of December 2025 — whether consolidation or a rapid rally — will likely set the opening tone for 2026. A decisive year-end rally could accelerate risk-on positioning into Q1, while a muted December would make broader recovery more dependent on macro normalization and renewed institutional participation in the new year.

Either way, traders and institutional allocators will be watching for durable improvements in market depth and steady inflows as signals that a shift from short-lived blips to a sustained cycle change is underway.

MEXC perspective and resources

At MEXC, we continue to monitor macro drivers, on-chain analytics and order-book liquidity to provide timely market insights and tools that help users navigate periods of heightened uncertainty. For market participants seeking execution and custody options, our platform resources and market indicators can assist in informed decision-making. Visit https://www.mexc.com for platform details and educational materials.

Conclusion

As 2025 draws to a close, the market is demonstrating a familiar post-Thanksgiving pattern: selling pressure has eased, momentum metrics have recovered from oversold territory, but liquidity remains impaired. These conditions have historically preceded a decisive December outcome — either consolidation or a sharp rally — depending largely on macro signals and institutional flows. Traders should prioritize liquidity monitoring and risk controls while staying attentive to early-December policy cues and flow data that are likely to determine the market’s next major directional move.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.