Post-Thanksgiving Crypto Pattern Returns

Overview: Market Recovery Nears Holiday Threshold

Late November 2025 saw a meaningful rebound across major crypto assets after a sharp sell-off earlier in the month. Key indicators that had tracked deeply oversold conditions have begun to recover, and price action entering the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend suggests the market may be following a multi-year seasonal pattern.

MEXC research identifies three core themes shaping the current landscape: waning seller dominance, improving technical momentum, and fragile liquidity. Together, these factors create a setup that historically has produced decisive December outcomes — either a muted consolidation or a short, sharp rally depending on macro and institutional flow dynamics.

Technical and Sentiment Signals Turning Positive

Across spot and derivative markets, a cluster of metrics reversed course in recent days, signaling an initial stabilization after November volatility.

• Momentum indicators such as MACD readings across major tokens flipped from negative to positive in aggregate, a meaningful shift after weeks of bearish momentum.
• Average relative strength index (RSI) values that registered oversold territory earlier in the month have climbed toward neutral-to-bullish levels, reflecting reduced selling pressure and renewed buying interest.
• Market sentiment gauges moved off extreme lows, though sentiment remains cautious overall.

Price action echoed these shifts. Bitcoin reclaimed nearby resistance levels, while Ethereum and several large-cap altcoins posted weekly gains. Market capitalization recovered modestly as risk appetite increased into the holiday period.

What this means

Collectively, these technical and sentiment improvements indicate relief from forced liquidation dynamics that dominated much of November. For traders and risk managers on MEXC, this shift suggests a transition from risk-off capitulation to a period where directional moves may hinge more on macro cues and institutional flows than retail-driven panic selling.

Comparison with 2022–2024 Post-Thanksgiving Patterns

When viewed through the lens of the last three holiday seasons, a recognizable structure is emerging again in 2025. Two distinct post-Thanksgiving outcomes have repeated in recent years:

• Consolidation during low-liquidity bear phases, where prices trade sideways into December.
• Rapid year-end rallies when liquidity and institutional flows improve, producing sharp upside moves over a short window.

In previous years, the differentiating factors were broader liquidity conditions and the presence (or absence) of strong institutional demand. The current environment shows the same mix: selling appears to have exhausted for now, but market depth remains thinner than normal. That leaves prices susceptible to outsized moves if flows reappear.

Liquidity Dynamics and Market Structure

Liquidity erosion has been a recurring theme through 2025, with market makers adjusting balance sheets following concentrated liquidation events earlier in the year. Reduced market-making capacity has contributed to wider bid-ask spreads and lower order-book depth.

Key structural observations:

• Order-book depth is shallower across centralised platforms compared with pre-2025 norms, increasing price sensitivity to medium-size flows.
• Derivatives funding rates and leverage ratios moderated as aggressive short- and long-side positions reduced exposure, limiting immediate forced-liquidation risk.
• On-chain behaviors indicate holders are increasingly leveraging collateralized loans rather than spot-selling, which dampens spot supply but raises hidden leverage risk.

These structural conditions can accelerate moves in either direction. Even modest inflows into spot or ETF products, or a sudden shift in macro sentiment, could translate into rapid price discovery episodes due to constrained liquidity.

Macro Backdrop: Why Early December Matters in 2025

Macro developments are likely to be the principal directional catalyst in early December 2025. Market participants are watching central bank signals, inflation readings, and global liquidity conditions that could either encourage risk-on behavior or trigger renewed caution.

• Central bank commentary: Any dovish language or indications of reduced policy tightening tendencies could unlock institutional risk appetite and larger inflows into crypto products.
• Institutional flows: ETF and custody inflows remain a high-impact variable. In a market with limited liquidity, even moderate net inflows can move prices materially.
• Macro data releases: Labor and inflation prints, as well as geopolitical headlines, will influence cross-asset risk positioning and may amplify crypto-specific momentum.

MEXC analysts view the first two weeks of December 2025 as a probable decision point. If macro signals turn favorable and institutional flows resume, the market is positioned for a compressed, bullish move. Conversely, if liquidity conditions deteriorate or macro risk spikes, consolidation or renewed downside remains possible.

On-Chain and Flow Indicators to Watch

Traders and analysts should monitor several on-chain and flow metrics that historically precede large market moves:

• Exchange net flows: Diminishing exchange deposit volumes combined with sustained withdrawals can signal supply compression.
• Derivatives open interest: Significant re-accumulation of leverage, especially on one side, can foreshadow volatile resolution.
• Taker buy/sell cumulative volume data: Shifts from persistent sell dominance to neutrality often mark the end of forced selling cycles.
• Stablecoin issuance and movement: Growing stablecoin demand into spot markets can underwrite bullish price action.

These indicators provide actionable context beyond headline price moves and are integral to MEXC’s market monitoring for institutional and retail users.

Scenario Analysis: Two Potential December Outcomes

MEXC outlines two realistic scenarios based on the current setup and historical precedent.

Scenario A — Sideways Consolidation

• Liquidity remains constrained, and macro signals stay neutral to mildly negative.
• Price action grinds in a range as market participants await clearer catalysts.
• Volatility decreases slightly but remains elevated compared with long-run averages.

Scenario B — Short, Sharp Rally

• Dovish macro commentary or meaningful institutional inflows revive market depth.
• Prices break out quickly as constrained liquidity amplifies the impact of inflows.
• Momentum indicators and sentiment improve rapidly, triggering follow-on buying.

Which scenario plays out will depend less on retail sentiment and more on macro policy signals and institutional demand. Given the market’s current sensitivity, even modest flow differentials could produce outsized price impacts.

Risk Considerations for Traders and Investors

Given the fragile liquidity environment and the potential for rapid price moves, market participants should consider prudent risk management:

• Position sizing: Reduce exposure size relative to account equity to limit the effect of sudden moves.
• Use of stops and hedging: Implement stop-loss strategies and consider hedges in derivatives where available.
• Monitor funding rates: Keep an eye on derivatives funding as a gauge of leveraged demand and short-term cost to hold positions.
• Stay informed: Follow macro calendars and institutional flow reports that can quickly alter market dynamics.

MEXC emphasizes that risk management is especially important during thin liquidity periods, when volatility can spike unexpectedly.

Implications for the Broader Crypto Ecosystem

The return of a post-Thanksgiving pattern in 2025 highlights a maturing interplay between macro policy, institutional adoption, and market structure. As traditional financial flows increasingly interact with crypto markets, outcomes will be shaped by cross-asset sentiment and liquidity provision.

For market infrastructure providers and exchanges, the current environment reinforces the need for robust liquidity provisions and transparent flow reporting. For institutional participants, the market’s sensitivity highlights the importance of execution strategy and timing.

Conclusion: December Poised for Directional Resolution

As 2025 moves into December, MEXC’s analysis suggests the market has entered a transitional phase reminiscent of the last two post-Thanksgiving periods. Seller exhaustion, improving momentum, and precarious liquidity together create a setup that historically resolves with a pronounced move rather than a quiet month.

The coming weeks will likely be dictated by macro signals and institutional flow behaviour. Traders and investors should prepare for heightened sensitivity and manage risk accordingly as the market decides whether December becomes a consolidation similar to a low-liquidity year or a rapid rally driven by renewed demand.

MEXC will continue to monitor on-chain metrics, flow data, and macro developments to provide timely market insights and support for traders navigating this potentially pivotal period.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.