Outwardly bullish on Ethereum, but internally bearish in reports, can Tom Lee’s team still be trusted?

This article is reposted from Chaincatcher.

Author | Aki Wu on Blockchain

If one were to choose the most representative figure for the Ethereum bull narrative in 2025, Tom Lee, chairman of the Ethereum treasury company BitMine and co-founder and chief investment officer of Fundstrat, would often be placed in the most prominent position. He has repeatedly emphasized in public speeches that ETH is undervalued, and just recently at Binance Blockchain Week on December 4, he stated that Ethereum at $3000 is “seriously undervalued,” and has given a high target price prediction of “ETH at $15,000 by the end of 2025.” As a Wall Street veteran known as the “Wall Street Oracle,” and a strategist who has long been active in media and institutional roadshows, Tom Lee’s views are often seen as a barometer of market sentiment.

However, when the market shifts its focus from the spotlight to internal documents, the narrative takes a turn: in the latest internal subscription report from Fundstrat, which Tom Lee founded, the 2026 outlook strategy suggests an opposing view. Its baseline prediction indicates that there may be a significant pullback in crypto assets in the first half of 2026, with an ETH target range of $1800 to $2000. This discrepancy between the “publicly bullish” and “internally bearish” statements has thrust Tom Lee and his associated institutions into the spotlight of public opinion.

Core Predictions and Views from Fundstrat’s “2026 Crypto Outlook”

The report was issued by Sean Farrell, an analyst responsible for crypto asset research at Fundstrat, who currently serves as the head of digital asset strategy, primarily covering strategy research and viewpoints related to the crypto market and blockchain. The report is mainly aimed at its internal subscription clients, with a monthly subscription fee of $249.

The report presents a short-term market expectation that is starkly different from public opinion, predicting a significant market correction in the first half of 2026: Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 to $65,000, Ethereum may fall to $1800 to $2000, and Solana may decline to $50 to $75. It states that these pullback areas will be good opportunities to position for a bullish stance, and if the market does not pull back as expected, the team prefers to maintain a defensive strategy, waiting for clear trend reinforcement signals before re-entering the market.

The report explains that the aforementioned pessimistic scenario does not indicate a shift to a long-term bear market, but rather a risk management measure of “strategic reset.” Fundstrat points out several short-term headwinds that may suppress the crypto market in early 2026: including the potential government shutdown in the U.S., uncertainty in international trade policies, waning confidence in AI investment returns, and the policy suspense brought about by the change in the Federal Reserve chair.

These macro factors, combined with high volatility, may trigger a valuation pullback of crypto assets in a tight liquidity environment. Fundstrat emphasizes that this adjustment is a “pullback rather than a crash,” believing that sharp declines are often a prelude to a new round of upward momentum. After digesting risks in the first half of the year, the second half is expected to strengthen again.

The report even provides an optimistic target for the end of 2026: Bitcoin at $115,000 and Ethereum at $4,500, and specifically mentions that Ethereum may exhibit relative strength during this round of adjustments. The report points out that Ethereum has some structural advantages: after transitioning to PoS consensus, there is no selling pressure from miners, unlike Bitcoin, which faces ongoing selling pressure from miners; there are also no potential selling pressure factors similar to large holders like MicroStrategy. Additionally, compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum faces lower concerns regarding quantum computing threats.

These factors suggest that Ethereum may better withstand selling pressure in the medium term. It can be seen that Fundstrat’s internal research report has a cautious tone; although it remains bullish in the long term, it advises internal clients to increase cash and stablecoin holdings and patiently wait for better entry points.

Tom Lee’s Public Optimistic Prediction for Ethereum in 2025

In stark contrast to Fundstrat’s internal report, its co-founder Tom Lee has consistently played the role of a “super bull” in public forums throughout 2025, repeatedly issuing price expectations for Bitcoin and Ethereum that far exceed market realities:

Bullish on Bitcoin at the beginning of the year: According to CoinDesk, Tom Lee set a target for Bitcoin at the end of 2025 at around $250,000. In July-August 2025, as Ethereum’s price surged close to historical highs, Tom Lee publicly stated that Ethereum is expected to reach $12,000 to $15,000 by the end of 2025, calling it one of the biggest macro investment opportunities in the next 10 to 15 years.

In August, during a guest appearance on CNBC, he further raised his target price, stating that Ethereum is entering a critical turning point similar to Bitcoin in 2017. In 2017, Bitcoin started from under $1,000 and surged to $120,000 under the “digital gold” narrative, achieving a 120-fold increase. With the “Genius Act” giving the green light to stablecoins, the crypto industry is ushering in a “ChatGPT moment,” and the core advantages of smart contracts do not apply to Bitcoin. He predicts that this is Ethereum’s “2017 moment,” and it is not impossible for the price to rise from $3,700 to $30,000 or even higher.

Supercycle Narrative: As the autumn market approached, Tom Lee maintained an extremely optimistic stance. In November 2025, he stated in an interview, “We believe ETH is entering a supercycle similar to Bitcoin from 2017 to 2021,” implying that Ethereum has the potential to replicate Bitcoin’s hundredfold increase trajectory in the coming years.

Speech at Dubai Summit: At Binance Blockchain Week in early December 2025, Tom Lee again made headlines by loudly proclaiming a bull market, predicting that Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 “within months,” and bluntly stating that Ethereum, priced at around $3,000 at the time, is “seriously undervalued.”

He pointed out through historical data comparison that if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to the eight-year average level (around 0.07), the ETH price could reach $12,000; if it returns to the relative high point of 2021 (around 0.16), ETH could rise to $22,000; and in extreme cases, if the ETH/BTC ratio rises to 0.25, Ethereum’s valuation could theoretically exceed $60,000.

Short-term New High Expectations: Even in the face of market turbulence at the end of the year, Tom Lee has not toned down his bullish rhetoric. In mid-December 2025, during a CNBC interview, he stated, “I don’t think this wave of increase is over,” and bet that Bitcoin and Ethereum will reach historic new highs by the end of January next year, at which point Bitcoin had already surpassed its 2021 high, while Ethereum at around $3,000 was still about 40% away from its historical high of $4,954.

The above prediction list almost covers most of the time points in 2025. On the unbias fyi Fundstrat analysis page, Tom Lee is labeled as a “Perma Bull,” and every statement he makes tends to provide the market with higher target prices and more optimistic timelines. However, these aggressive predictions are far from the actual market trends. This series of facts has led the market to begin questioning the credibility of “Wall Street Oracle” Tom Lee.

Who is Tom Lee?

Thomas Jong Lee, commonly known as Tom Lee, is a well-known stock market strategist, research director, and financial commentator in the United States. He began his career on Wall Street in the 1990s, having worked at Kidder Peabody and Salomon Smith Barney, and joined JPMorgan in 1999, serving as chief equity strategist from 2007.

In 2014, he co-founded the independent research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors and became the head of research, transitioning from an investment banking strategist to the head of an independent research firm. He is regarded as one of the early Wall Street strategists to incorporate Bitcoin into mainstream valuation discussions. In 2017, he published a report titled “A framework for valuing bitcoin as a substitute for gold,” which first proposed that Bitcoin has the potential to partially replace gold as a store of value.

Due to the media-centric nature of his research and views, Tom Lee often appears in mainstream financial programs and events as “Fundstrat’s Head of Research” (including references to his title in CNBC-related program/event pages and video content). Since 2025, his influence has further extended to the “Ethereum treasury” narrative: according to Reuters, BitMine added Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee to its board after promoting financing related to its Ethereum treasury strategy to support its Ethereum-oriented treasury strategy. Meanwhile, Fundstrat continues to release market outlooks and opinion segments centered around Tom Lee through its own YouTube channel.

The Contrast Between Publicly Loud Predictions and Internal Cautious Bearishness

The contradictory statements from Tom Lee and his team in different contexts have sparked heated discussions within the community regarding their motives and integrity. In response to recent controversies, Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, published a statement claiming that there is a misunderstanding regarding Fundstrat’s research process.

He stated that Fundstrat has multiple analysts, each using independent research frameworks and time scales to serve different types of clients; among them, Tom Lee’s research is more oriented towards traditional asset management institutions and “low allocation” investors (who typically allocate only 1% to 5% of their assets to BTC/ETH), emphasizing long-term discipline and structural trends, while he himself primarily serves portfolios with a higher allocation to crypto assets (around 20%+). However, Tom Lee did not disclose that he was addressing the “1% to 5% allocation to BTC/ETH” group when publicly bullish on ETH.

Farrell further stated that his cautious baseline scenario for the first half of 2026 is a risk management measure, not a shift to a bearish outlook on the long-term prospects of crypto. He believes that the current market pricing is leaning towards “almost perfect,” but risks such as government shutdowns, trade fluctuations, uncertainty in AI capital expenditures, and changes in the Federal Reserve chair remain. He also listed his historical performance, claiming that his token portfolio has grown about threefold since mid-January 2023, and his crypto stock portfolio has risen about 230% since its inception, outperforming BTC by about 40%. During their respective durations, both have likely outperformed most liquidity funds. However, this wording seems more like a cover-up for Bitmine’s $3 billion paper loss and contradictory statements from its founder.

Conclusion: The Contrast is Not the Problem Itself, the Issue Lies in Disclosure and Boundaries

The real controversy arises not from the existence of different frameworks within Fundstrat, but from the lack of sufficient clarity in applicable scope and interest disclosure between the co-founder’s public communications and service endpoints.

Sean Farrell’s explanation of the contradictory statements due to serving different types of clients is logically valid, but it still cannot avoid three questions at the communication level:

1. When Tom Lee frequently expresses strong optimism about ETH in public videos and media interviews, the audience does not automatically assume this is “only applicable to long-term allocation discussions for low allocation positions,” nor do they automatically understand the implied risk premises, time scales, and probability weights. He has not publicly clarified this or defined the applicable scope.
2. The subscription model of FS Insight/Fundstrat is essentially “monetizing research,” with the official website directly presenting “Start Free Trial” and other subscription prompts, showcasing Tom Lee as a promotional figure. Tom Lee is a core figure at Fundstrat, and the FS Insight page directly labels him as “Tom Lee, CFA / Head of Research.” When traffic and subscription growth come more from Tom Lee’s public interviews across various media, how can the company convince the public that “this is just expressing personal opinions”?

1. Public records show that Tom Lee also serves as the chairman of the board for BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), a company that positions ETH as one of its core treasury directions. Under this identity structure, his continued public “bullish stance on ETH” will naturally be interpreted by the market as being highly aligned with the interests of associated entities. For CFA charterholders, professional ethics also emphasize the need for “full and clear disclosure” regarding matters that may affect independence and objectivity.

Such controversies often involve compliance issues: anti-fraud and conflict of interest disclosures. In the context of U.S. securities law, Rule 10b-5 is one of the typical anti-fraud provisions, focusing on prohibiting significant false or misleading statements related to securities transactions.

Moreover, Fundstrat’s structural composition complicates the controversy: Fundstrat Global Advisors emphasizes in its terms and disclosure documents that it is a research company, “not a registered investment advisor or a broker-dealer,” and that subscription research is “for client use only.” However, at the same time, Fundstrat Capital LLC clearly provides advisory services as an “SEC-registered investment advisor (RIA).”

Considering that public interviews and the operation of Fundstrat’s YouTube channel effectively serve the function of “customer acquisition/marketing,” another question arises: Which content belongs to personal research dissemination, and which content belongs to company marketing? If an institution’s public video channels continuously release “bullish segments,” while the subscription service side publishes “bearish predictions for the first half of the year,” without synchronously presenting key limiting conditions and risk frameworks in public communications, it would at least constitute a selective presentation under information asymmetry.

This may not violate the law, but it will continue to erode public trust in the independence and credibility of research, and blur the boundaries between “research—marketing—narrative mobilization.” For research institutions where reputation is one of the core business elements, such trust costs will ultimately backfire on the brand itself.

Disclaimer: This article is reposted content and reflects the opinions of the original author. This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.