HBAR Technical Outlook 2025

Market snapshot: HBAR under pressure but divergence emerges

HBAR has experienced pronounced downside pressure in recent weeks, yet technical indicators are signaling a potential shift in momentum. After a notable pullback, price action is currently interacting with the lower boundary of a long-running falling wedge. At the same time, momentum and money-flow measures are beginning to offer a more constructive picture — a combination that traders and investors should monitor closely as macro and crypto-specific dynamics evolve through 2025.

What the indicators are showing

Momentum divergence on the daily chart

On the daily timeframe, HBAR has printed a classic bullish divergence: price formed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to confirm that weakness and instead made a higher low. That pattern suggests selling pressure may be waning even as prices attempt to make new lows.

When observed on longer timeframes, RSI divergences can precede meaningful corrections or trend changes. However, divergences are not guarantees — they are early warning signs that control may be shifting from sellers to buyers.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) turning constructive

Complementing the RSI signal, Chaikin Money Flow — a metric that estimates whether institutional-sized flows are entering or leaving an asset — has recently moved off its lows and started to trend higher. This is an important development because past rebound attempts failed when CMF continued to decline, indicating that “big money” was not supporting rallies.

A sustained CMF recovery, particularly a move above zero, would provide stronger confirmation that capital is re-entering the market and would lend greater credibility to the RSI divergence.

Pattern context: the falling wedge

Price is currently located near the lower boundary of a falling wedge that has been active across multiple weeks. Falling wedges are typically interpreted as bullish continuation or reversal patterns, depending on the prior trend and breakout direction.

Key nuances to consider:

• The lower trend line has relatively few validated touchpoints, which weakens the structural integrity of the wedge.
• Volume behavior and CMF alignment will be critical to distinguish a genuine reversal from another failed rebound.
• A decisive daily close below the lower trend line would invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the risk of a deeper decline.

Key price levels to watch (2025)

Traders and risk managers should keep the following levels in focus:

• Support to defend: $0.145 — a daily close below this level would likely break the wedge and expose lower targets.
• Near-term resistance: $0.165 — clearing this level on strong volume would indicate that buyers are reasserting control and could validate the divergence.
• Target on a successful rebound: $0.186 — near the wedge’s upper trend line and a logical next supply zone.
• Extended upside if momentum sustains: $0.219 and above — reclaiming this area would point to a larger trend change.

Scenarios and probability weighting

Bullish (probable if conditions align)

Scenario: RSI divergence holds, CMF continues higher and crosses or remains above zero, and price reclaims $0.165 with increasing volume.

Implication: A break above $0.165 and then $0.186 would likely push HBAR toward $0.219, as the falling wedge resolves to the upside. In 2025, improved institutional appetite for crypto and greater allocation from treasury and treasury-adjacent funds could provide additional tailwinds for altcoins like HBAR if macro liquidity remains supportive.

Bearish (probable if support fails)

Scenario: Price closes decisively below $0.145, CMF rolls over, and no volume supporting rallies emerges.

Implication: A breakdown invalidates the bullish divergence and likely prompts a search for lower support levels. Given the current structure, a break of the wedge could accelerate downside as sellers gain confidence.

Broader 2025 market context

2025 continues to exhibit a maturing crypto market dynamic. Institutional participation has become more nuanced post-ETF approvals and amid ongoing regulatory clarity in several jurisdictions. That maturity can amplify both uptrends and downtrends depending on liquidity conditions and macro risk appetite.

For crypto-native tokens like HBAR, network adoption trends also matter. Use cases such as enterprise-grade ledger services, tokenization of real-world assets, and developer activity can influence medium-term sentiment. When technicals and fundamentals align, price moves tend to be more sustainable.

Risk management and practical considerations

Trading or investing around pattern setups requires disciplined risk control. Consider the following checklist:

• Wait for confirmation: look for a daily close above $0.165 with expanding volume to validate the bullish case.
• Watch CMF: a sustained move above zero improves the probability that inflows are real and sustained.
• Set stop-losses: define risk before entering trades, for example beneath recent swing lows or below $0.145 if taking a long position.
• Position sizing: reduce exposure if the wedge has limited touchpoints, as false breakouts are more likely when patterns are less robust.
• Macro overlay: monitor USD liquidity, rates, and major market events that could rapidly shift risk appetite in 2025.

Volume and confirmation: the deciding factors

Technical breakouts accompanied by healthy volume tend to be more trustworthy. In this context, simply printing a higher close without accompanying flow does not constitute a confirmed reversal.

Key confirmation items to watch for:

• Rising on-balance volume or other volume-based momentum indicators.
• CMF staying above its trend line and ideally moving through zero.
• RSI maintaining higher-lows and moving into neutral-to-bullish territory rather than turning down again.

Fundamentals: why HBAR’s network factors matter

Hedera’s distributed ledger and its token HBAR are influenced by on-chain adoption and enterprise integration. In 2025, areas to observe include:

• New partnerships or enterprise-grade deployments that increase transactional demand.
• Developer ecosystem growth and smart contract activity.
• Token-supply dynamics and any mechanics affecting circulating supply.

These fundamentals don’t negate the immediate impact of technicals, but they can influence how persistent any recovery or breakdown becomes.

What traders should monitor next

In the coming days and weeks, attention should center on confluence between price action, volume, and money-flow metrics. Practical items to keep an eye on:

• Daily candle closes relative to $0.145 and $0.165.
• CMF trajectory and whether it remains supportive of the divergence.
• Overall market breadth and Bitcoin’s direction — BTC can still lead altcoin moves in 2025.
• On-chain activity indicators and any fundamental news that could alter sentiment.

Conclusion

HBAR is at a technical crossroads. A bullish divergence accompanied by a rising Chaikin Money Flow offers an early signal that sellers may be losing momentum. To translate that signal into a sustainable rebound, HBAR needs to hold wedge support and register a move above $0.165 on constructive volume. Conversely, a decisive close below $0.145 would shift the bias decisively toward sellers.

As always, traders should combine technical signals with risk management and awareness of broader market conditions. For those seeking deeper market coverage and trading access, visit MEXC for resources and markets coverage.

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