Year-end patterns: Which cryptocurrencies tend to rally in December?
Several major cryptocurrencies have demonstrated recurrent strength during December and the Christmas period. A six-year review of USD returns from 2019 through 2024 highlights a small group of large- and mid-cap tokens that frequently show positive year-end momentum. These seasonal moves are not guaranteed, however: they are concentrated in bull or recovery phases and depend on macro liquidity, sentiment and project-specific developments.
Methodology and market context
The analysis below summarizes December returns for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Litecoin (LTC) and Monero (XMR) over the 2019–2024 window. The goal is to identify recurring seasonal patterns and how they interact with broader market cycles.
Keep in mind that by 2025 the market environment has shifted compared with prior years. Institutional products, evolving regulation and macro dynamics (inflation trajectories, interest-rate policy and risk appetite) affect year-end flows. Traders should treat historical December strength as a contextual input rather than a deterministic signal.
Bitcoin: Strong gains in recovery years, muted or negative in others
Bitcoin’s December performance across 2019–2024 shows notable variation tied to cycle phase. Its standout month was December 2020, when BTC rallied roughly 48% (from about $19,700 to $29,000). Bitcoin also posted a solid December in 2023, gaining about 12% amid renewed optimism around institutional adoption and improved market liquidity.
By contrast, Bitcoin saw negative Decembers in several years: around -5% in 2019, roughly -19% in 2021, about -4% in 2022 and slightly more than -3% in 2024. These drop-offs correspond with tightening macro conditions, regulatory headwinds and late-cycle volatility.
Two practical patterns emerge:
- December rallies tend to cluster during broad bull runs or recovery phases.
- When risk appetite weakens, BTC’s year-end performance can flip quickly.
Ethereum: Mirrors Bitcoin but with sharper downside in stress periods
Ethereum’s December history tracks Bitcoin’s overall cycle sensitivity. Notable rallies occurred in December 2020 (roughly +21%, moving from ~\$615 to ~\$750) and December 2023 (about +11%), both periods marked by improving macro liquidity and heightened on-chain activity.
However, ETH experienced meaningful December declines in bearish or stressed years: about -15% in 2019, -20% in 2021 and roughly -8% in both 2022 and 2024. The asset’s performance suggests that when liquidity and risk appetite are ample, ETH participates in year-end rallies; when conditions tighten it tends to underperform more defensive assets.
BNB: High beta that amplifies upswings and downswings
BNB has shown powerful December upside in certain years but also deeper drawdowns. In December 2020 it rose about 19%, and in December 2023 it posted one of the largest moves in the dataset — roughly +37%, climbing from near $228 to about $312 as clarity around exchange operations and volume trends helped sentiment.
At the same time, BNB suffered heavy December losses in years with exchange-related fear or market stress: approximately -13% in 2019 and nearly -18% in both 2021 and 2022. This high-beta profile makes BNB particularly sensitive to positive liquidity shocks and adverse regulatory headlines.
Litecoin: A high-beta holiday play with historical late-year pops
Litecoin often behaves like a leveraged play on market sentiment around Christmas. Its strongest December in the period studied was 2020, when LTC jumped roughly 42% (from about $88 to $125), tracking Bitcoin’s breakout and renewed retail interest in payments-related narratives.
Subsequent years were mixed: declines of around -13% in 2019, nearly -30% in 2021 and about -12% in 2022; modest rebounds appeared in 2023 (~+5%) and an estimated +7% in 2024. Litecoin tends to rally during risk-on late-year phases, sometimes buoyed by halving cycles and payment integrations.
Monero: Defensive December performance with consistent gains
Monero has stood out for comparatively steady, defensive year-end behavior. It increased roughly 15% in December 2020 and continued to post gains in other challenged months, including around +9% in 2022 and about +10% in December 2023.
Across 2019–2024, Monero avoided some of the extreme December drawdowns seen in other altcoins. That steadier profile likely reflects persistent transactional demand and use-case-driven activity, making it one of the more resilient mid-cap performers during certain late-year market stresses.
What the data implies: Santa rallies are selective
Key takeaways from the historical record:
- December strength is concentrated. The five tokens above generated some of the most notable year-end returns in 2020 and 2023, both recovery/bull environments.
- No guarantee. Every coin in the group experienced at least one negative December over the sample, underscoring the risk of assuming holidays bring universal gains.
- Macro matters. Liquidity, interest-rate expectations and institutional flow dynamics are powerful drivers of year-end moves.
2025 context: How current dynamics could affect year-end seasonality
As markets moved into 2025, several structural factors reshaped how December rallies might materialize:
- Institutional adoption paths continued to evolve. Additional trading products and clearer custody frameworks have increased participation in spot markets, sometimes enhancing liquidity toward year-end.
- Regulatory clarity in multiple jurisdictions reduced some exchange-specific uncertainty seen in prior years, but localized enforcement actions still create episodic volatility.
- Macro tailwinds or headwinds — especially central bank policy and inflation reports — remain decisive. Easing inflation and stable rates tend to favor late-year risk-on flows; the opposite can compress December gains.
- On-chain fundamentals such as network upgrades, active addresses and staking flows influence which assets capture discretionary capital during holiday rallies.
Given these dynamics, traders in 2025 should treat historical December patterns as one input among many. Institutional flows and macro announcements in November–December can quickly reinforce or overturn seasonal tendencies.
How traders and investors can use December seasonality in 2025
Seasonality offers actionable insights, but prudent execution is essential. Consider these practical approaches:
- Use seasonality as a tactical overlay, not a sole decision driver. Combine historical December performance with current macro signals and liquidity metrics.
- Define risk limits. Year-end trading often occurs with thinner OTC liquidity in certain time zones; set stop-losses and position sizes accordingly.
- Monitor project-specific catalysts. Exchange rulings, token upgrades and ETF or custody approvals can dominate seasonal flows for particular coins.
- Employ phased entry/exit. Dollar-cost averaging into positions across November–December and scaling out after rallies can reduce timing risk.
- Hedge where appropriate. For large allocations, consider hedges or options to protect against abrupt December drawdowns.
Market signals to watch in late 2025
When evaluating whether a Santa rally is likely, watch these indicators closely:
- Net spot inflows into major exchanges and custody providers.
- Volume and open interest trends in both cash and derivatives markets.
- Macro releases: CPI, employment data and central bank forward guidance.
- Project-level news such as upgrade timelines, legal rulings and partnership announcements.
Final thoughts
Historical data from 2019 to 2024 shows that a small set of cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Litecoin and Monero — have often produced notable December returns, particularly during bull and recovery years. Nevertheless, each also had negative Decembers, illustrating that holiday rallies are selective and heavily dependent on prevailing macro and market conditions.
In 2025, evolving institutional participation and regulatory developments are likely to shape which assets benefit from year-end flows. Investors and traders should combine seasonal patterns with up-to-date liquidity, macro and project-specific information before positioning for a Christmas or year-end rally.
Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.
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