After TGE, not all token price charts move in the same way. Some coins collapse from the very first day and continue to trend downward. Others trade sideways for a long period before recovering. There are also cases where prices surge strongly thanks to the right structure and favorable market timing. In practice, most crypto projects after TGE tend to fall into a limited number of recurring price behavior groups that follow fairly similar principles. Correctly identifying which group a held token belongs to is a key factor in building an appropriate trading strategy.
1. What Is TGE?
TGE, or Token Generation Event, is the moment when a token is officially issued and begins public trading on DEXs or CEXs. It is also the most volatile phase in a token’s entire price lifecycle. In the first minutes or hours, prices can rise or fall by tens of percent due to extremely low initial circulating supply, liquidity being controlled by market makers, and expectations inflated by premarket trading. Selling pressure becomes even stronger once the token enters unlock phases for VCs, teams, and early allocators, especially for projects with airdrops, where most users tend to sell immediately to take profits.
Although the TGE phase is chaotic, price behavior during this period is not entirely random. In reality, tokens often repeat familiar patterns such as a short-term pump followed by weakness, a pump designed to attract retail inflows before collapsing, or a sharp initial dump followed by accumulation and recovery. Classifying tokens into five price behavior groups helps traders and airdrop recipients quickly assess market context and decide whether to sell immediately, keep holding, or patiently wait for a suitable accumulation zone.
2. Common Post-TGE Price Models
2.1 VC Coins: Low Float, High FDV
VC Coins are the most common group in current TGEs. Their defining feature is extremely low float, sometimes below 5 percent, while FDV is pushed to very high levels, often hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars from day one. With low float, market makers can easily control price action to create an opening pump. After that, the token typically enters weak sideways movement or a gradual downtrend, as the market lacks sufficient real demand to sustain higher prices.
Selling pressure in this group is often much greater than retail investors expect. Most VC-backed projects have unlock schedules starting after six to twelve months, meaning VC tokens remain locked for long periods. This creates incentives for VCs to protect their positions from the early TGE phase, often through hedging or indirect profit taking to manage price risk.
Not only VCs and teams, but also developers who receive token incentives to build dApps often sell soon after TGE to recover costs or reduce exposure. As a result, VC coin charts commonly form a pattern of a single pump followed by a steep decline.
STRK price chart since TGE
Starknet (STRK) is a representative example of a VC coin. At its TGE in late 2024, only around 0.6 percent of supply entered circulation, while FDV was pushed to 10 to 20 billion USD. VCs held around 20 percent of total supply, with a vesting schedule lasting three years.
After the initial pump, the token quickly entered a deep correction due to continuous unlocks and internal selling through OTC channels. By mid 2025, STRK had fallen more than 90 percent from its listing price, with market capitalization shrinking to around 2 billion USD. This clearly reflected the market repricing Starknet after a period of excessive growth expectations.
For VC Coins, the safest strategy is to participate early to capture the opening pump at TGE and exit quickly. Long-term holding is strongly discouraged due to tokenomics that are unfavorable to retail investors. Volatility in this group is extremely high, so all-in positions or large sizing should be avoided.
Before entering any trade, three key factors should be checked carefully: actual circulating float, VC and team unlock schedules, and FDV relative to current product value. If all three are unfavorable, the most prudent choice is to stay out or trade only short-term moves.
2.2 Crime Coins: Deliberate Pump and Dump
Crime Coins are the most violently volatile tokens at TGE. They are often manipulated by teams or market makers to create strong FOMO. These are usually small-cap tokens, thinly traded assets, or meme coins heavily shilled by KOLs, making their order books easy to manipulate. Prices are pushed sharply higher in a short time, drawing retail buyers at the top before being aggressively sold into.
The danger is that Crime Coins are difficult to identify early, as they initially look like normal TGEs. There is no product, no real utility, vague tokenomics, yet prices can multiply through manipulation or speculative flows. With meme coins, pumps are driven by hype and shilling rather than real value.
This element of surprise and speculation makes Crime Coins both extremely risky and extremely profitable. If timed correctly, they can generate the highest returns among all TGE categories, but only for traders who are fast, disciplined, and able to withstand extreme volatility.
LAYER is a clear example of a deliberate pump and dump. At TGE, the project had around 20 percent float and a 200 million USD market cap, small enough for market makers to control liquidity and push prices. After a sideways phase, roughly two months post-TGE, market makers drove the price from 1 USD to 3.2 USD, a 200 percent gain, with multiple weekly pumps of around 60 percent that triggered retail FOMO buying at the top. Once ATH was reached, more than 70 percent was dumped within three days, dragging market cap back to 200 million USD. From there, LAYER continued to decline and lost nearly half its value relative to TGE, with almost no signs of recovery.
LAYER price chart since TGE
For Crime Coins, the most important rule is to participate only in bullish market conditions, as these tokens depend heavily on speculative capital. Spot trading should always be prioritized, and leverage or futures should be avoided to reduce liquidation risk during abnormal reversals.
If entering a trade, limit sell orders of 20 to 30 percent should be placed immediately rather than waiting too long, as Crime Coins typically pump for very short periods. Finally, never short these tokens, since market maker driven pumps can happen suddenly and wipe out short positions in moments.
2.3 Rekt and Reborn Coins: Heavy Dump, Accumulation, and Recovery
Rekt and Reborn Coins are projects with real foundations, including clear products, active development teams, and large user communities before TGE. Because they have intrinsic value, these tokens do not follow the one-pump-then-bleed pattern seen in VC Coins.
Their defining trait is a very sharp dump at TGE. This usually comes from pre-TGE sales, airdrops, or large unlocks that trigger mass selling. After the initial crash, the token begins to accumulate within a stable price range, with volume gradually declining and smart money starting to accumulate.
Unlike VC Coins that experience slow rugs, Rekt and Reborn Coins follow a distinct pattern: a vertical drop, range-bound accumulation, then a strong rebound once whales finish accumulating and community FOMO returns. This is why this group can produce powerful recoveries after completing accumulation at low levels.
PUMP is a representative example. The token dropped nearly 60 percent in the first week due to heavy selling from airdrops, presale, and seed allocations. After the crash, PUMP entered an accumulation phase lasting nearly one month between 0.0025 and 0.0036 USD. MA20 and MA50 converged, volume declined sharply, and short-term supply was absorbed, signaling the formation of a base.
PUMP price chart since TGE
Once accumulation ended, PUMP entered a reborn phase. Price surged from 0.003 USD to 0.0089 USD, a 300 percent gain, accompanied by rising volume, consecutive green candles, and MA20 crossing above MA50. These were signals of organized buying rather than a temporary pump.
The strong recovery was also supported by real fundamentals from pump.fun and favorable broader market conditions. The platform generated stable revenue from bonding curves, AMMs, trading bots, and minting. A major catalyst came in September 2025, when revenue spiked due to Project Ascend, a flexible fee model that attracted streamers, builders, and creators outside crypto. On some days, revenue reached 8 million USD, all used for 100 percent buybacks, creating organic demand and absorbing remaining selling pressure.
Investors trading Rekt and Reborn Coins should avoid catching falling knives during freefall, as the initial dump often lasts longer than expected and lacks buying support. Instead, key signals to watch include the depth of the dump, declining volume, and the formation of a stable accumulation range. Entries should only be considered once price moves sideways in accumulation, moving averages compress, and volatility declines. This stage carries much lower risk and offers better risk-reward than entering during the steep decline.
2.4 ICO Coins: Large Raises, High FDV
ICO Coins attract significant attention due to large public raises and high participation, but price behavior at TGE is difficult to predict because each project has different distribution structures, unlock levels, and launchpads.
That said, most ICO hype shares common traits: high FDV, large raises, VC involvement, and sizable unlocks at TGE that create immediate selling pressure. In addition, ecosystem and operational allocations are often sold early, increasing supply.
The biggest risk comes from premarket trading, where prices are inflated or distorted by hedging, leverage, and whale manipulation, creating artificial valuations disconnected from fundamentals. Once tokens officially list, inflated expectations deflate, leading to extreme volatility followed by gradual declines as hype fades and early investors sell.
Monad is a clear example of ICO hype. It combined strong FOMO elements: a layer 1 blockchain developed over more than three years, raising a total of 431 million USD from major funds such as Coinbase, OKX Ventures, and Paradigm, with a testnet ecosystem that once exceeded 10 million active wallets.
MONAD price chart since TGE
Expectations for MON quickly collapsed due to premarket trading. About two weeks before TGE, MON traded around 0.11 USD, creating the illusion of high valuation and a strong post-listing pump. When real liquidity opened, that price level was not defended. Heavy selling from premarket buyers, airdrop recipients, and ICO participants pushed the price sharply lower, even below the ICO price, leaving market sentiment cold at TGE.
In addition, MON’s initial valuation was excessively high. Even after premarket prices on Hyperliquid fell to 0.055 USD, implying a 5.5 billion USD FDV, this was still double the Coinbase sale price and far above the early valuations of many major L1s. High FDV with an unfinished product led MON into a familiar outcome: inflated premarket expectations, heavy selling pressure at TGE, and a sharp post-listing decline.
For ICO tokens, the safest strategy is to avoid trading on the first day. Most of these projects unlock large portions for ICO participants, airdrops, and ecosystem funds, creating strong selling pressure at TGE and a high risk of immediate deep drawdowns.
2.5 Great Coins: Rare Cases
Great Coins are extremely rare in TGEs. These projects meet near-ideal conditions for natural and sustainable price action. The key factor is the absence of VCs, which removes selling pressure from cheap private rounds. Projects in this group usually have real products, real revenue, and real users, generating organic demand rather than relying on airdrops or incentive programs.
Circulating supply at TGE is typically distributed widely and reasonably, allowing the market to absorb trades more easily and reducing manipulation risk. While large float is not always beneficial, for projects with genuine usage, transparent distribution leads to more stable prices and avoids pump and dump structures.
Great Coins also tend to have strong, loyal communities that support long-term growth rather than short-lived FOMO. Because these conditions are rare, only a few such tokens appear each cycle and often stand out clearly at launch.
Hyperliquid is a representative Great Coin of the 2025 cycle due to its rare distribution structure. The project raised no VC funding, had no private rounds, and allocated 37 percent of total supply at TGE, removing selling pressure from cheap investors, the main reason many low-float high-FDV tokens collapse after listing.
HYPE price chart since TGE
More importantly, Hyperliquid has a real product and real cash flow. The platform generates large trading volume, produces stable fee revenue, and uses it for HYPE buybacks. This mechanism continuously absorbs selling pressure and supports organic price growth. Thanks to sound structure and proven product demand, HYPE rose more than 250 percent from TGE, moving against the broader altcoin downtrend.
3. Conclusion
TGEs can play out in many different ways. Some tokens dump first and then recover. Some pump only once and then enter prolonged weakness. Only a small minority sustain long-term growth momentum. This makes it essential to classify price behavior into distinct groups. Even so, markets continue to display patterns and frameworks that apply to most TGEs.
Key points to remember:
- Most projects experience at least one pump regardless of actual quality. Whether overvalued or small-cap, short-term upside almost always exists. Initial FDV does not determine whether a token can pump.
- Most tokens decline continuously after TGE. This is largely independent of project type or valuation, driven instead by weak natural demand and ongoing supply dilution.
- The price models discussed here mainly apply to TGEs on major centralized exchanges and do not cover listings of tokens with prior trading history. Tokens with established markets often behave very differently.
- TGE prices are influenced by many behind-the-scenes factors such as float, market makers, exchange incentives, airdrops, unlock schedules, ecosystem allocations, and hedging strategies. This article focuses on pure price behavior and trading rather than operational mechanics.
- In general, buying at TGE is not recommended unless for short-term scalping.
- TGEs are unsuitable for inexperienced traders due to high volatility and noisy market structures.
Disclaimer:This content does not constitute investment, tax, legal, financial, or accounting advice. MEXC provides this information for educational purposes only. Always do your own research, understand the risks, and invest responsibly.
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