A beginner-friendly look at the 2024 Bitcoin halving, its historical patterns, and what on-chain data suggests for Bitcoin in 2025.
In April 2024, Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving, a major event in the crypto world. A “halving” happens roughly every four years and it cuts the reward miners earn for securing the network.
What is halving? A halving is when the reward Bitcoin miners earn for verifying transactions is cut in half. And this happens roughly every four years and reduces the number of new bitcoins entering circulation.
Halving is important because it makes Bitcoin scarcer over time, which can impact price. Think of it like a bakery that bakes 100 loaves of bread a day. People love the bread, and demand is high. If the bakery suddenly makes only 50 loaves per day, the bread becomes scarcer, and people may be willing to pay more.
Bitcoin works the same way. Before April 2024, miners were creating 900 BTC per day. After the halving, only 450 BTC per day are issued. And fewer new coins and steady demand means a potential upward price pressure.
At Bitcoin prices of $60,000–70,000, the halving cut daily supply by $27–31 million. While this doesn’t guarantee an instant price jump, history shows that reduced supply often sets the stage for future growth.
But what does the data suggest about Bitcoin’s market outlook for 2025?
1.A Tightening Supply Shock
The halving immediately slowed the flow of new Bitcoin. On-chain data, which tracks activity directly on the blockchain shows that exchange reserves (the amount of Bitcoin held on trading platforms) are now at their lowest since 2018.
Fewer coins on exchanges mean fewer are available for traders to sell. At the same time, long-term holders (people who keep their Bitcoin for years instead of selling quickly) continue to accumulate. This combination of reduced supply and steady demand often builds upward price pressure over time.
2.Miner Revenue and Network Stability
Miners are the people and companies that run the computers securing the Bitcoin network. They earn Bitcoin as a reward for processing transactions. After the halving, rewards were cut in half, reducing overall miner income by around 50%.
Smaller miners with higher costs sometimes have to sell their Bitcoin to stay in business, a phenomenon called miner capitulation. This can temporarily increase selling pressure on the market.
Larger miners, however, are holding onto their Bitcoin, waiting for higher prices. They also benefit from transaction fees, which have increased due to new activity on the network, such as Ordinals (special data embedded in transactions). Historically, halvings strengthen the network by removing weaker miners and leaving a more resilient set of participants.
3.Lessons From Past Halving Cycles
Looking at previous halving events (2012, 2016, 2020) shows a consistent trend: prices usually don’t surge immediately. The biggest rallies often appear six to twelve months later, with new all-time highs 12–18 months after the halving.
For example:
After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin stayed near $9,000 for months before eventually reaching $69,000 in late 2021.
After the 2016 halving, the real breakout didn’t happen until mid-2017, climbing to $20,000.
Well, history has repeated itself, the strongest gains from 2024’s halving are occurring in 2025, rather than immediately after the halving.
As of September 15, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $115,518, reflecting a significant increase from its price around the time of the April 2024 halving.
Price Comparison:
April 2024 Halving Price: Approximately $64,994
September 2025 Price: Approximately $115,518
Percentage Increase:
From April 2024 to September 2025, Bitcoin’s price increased by about 77.5%.
This pattern highlights how halvings often set the stage for growth over the following year instead of causing instant price jumps
4.The Role of Institutional Demand
One big difference in this cycle is the growth of institutional demand. In January 2024, U.S. regulators approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which allow traditional investors and institutions to invest in Bitcoin through stock markets without actually buying or storing the coins themselves.
What is an ETF? An ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, is a type of investment fund traded like a stock. A Bitcoin ETF holds Bitcoin (or Bitcoin-related assets), and its price moves with Bitcoin. Investors can buy shares of the ETF without handling the coins directly.
Major players like BlackRock and Fidelity now hold over 800,000 BTC combined. On-chain data confirms that large wallets, often linked to institutions, are steadily growing. This adds a new layer of demand that didn’t exist in earlier cycles, potentially amplifying Bitcoin’s growth.
5.Key Risks to Watch
Even with strong demand, some factors could slow growth:
Macroeconomic risks: High interest rates or global economic slowdowns may reduce appetite for Bitcoin.
Regulatory risk: New laws in the U.S., Europe, or other regions could impact trading and liquidity.
Miner capitulation: If prices remain stagnant, some miners may sell more of their reserves, increasing short-term selling pressure.
6.Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Market Outlook for 2025
The 2024 halving has already created a supply shock, strengthened by long-term holder accumulation and institutional buying. On-chain data suggests a market where demand may outpace supply in the coming months.
While short-term volatility is expected, history shows that the most dramatic gains often appear a year or more after a halving. And so far, we’ve seen this pattern holding, bitcoin has already surpassed its previous all-time high, and on-chain data suggests continued strength and potential for further growth in 2025.
Whether you’re trading, investing, or exploring crypto for the first time, understanding these trends can help you make informed decisions.
To get started or take advantage of market opportunities, you can trade Bitcoin and other assets on MEXC Exchange, a platform with high liquidity and a wide range of crypto pairs.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions
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