Bitcoin slips under $89K as markets await major macro data

Market snapshot: Bitcoin retreats amid thin liquidity

Bitcoin briefly traded below $89,000 in quiet market conditions, as traders reduced risk exposure ahead of a packed macroeconomic calendar. The pullback came during low-volume weekend trading and reflected a broader lack of conviction across the crypto complex.

As of midday trading, bitcoin was hovering around the high $80,000s, down modestly on the day and marginally higher on the week. Ether demonstrated relative resilience, outperforming bitcoin on a seven‑day basis, while several major altcoins continued to suffer double‑digit losses month‑over‑month.

Key market indicators

• Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: ~ $3.15 trillion.
• 24‑hour trading volume: ~ $89 billion.
• Bitcoin dominance: ~ 57%.
• Notable movers: Ether showing strength; Solana, XRP, Dogecoin and Cardano lagging.

Liquidity and technical context

Weekend sessions typically see thinner liquidity, which can magnify directional moves and lead to wider intra‑day swings. Lower participation from institutional desks and algorithmic market makers during these hours leaves order books less robust.

From a technical perspective, market participants are watching a few key levels. Support near $86,000 has been highlighted by several analysts as critical: a decisive break below that area could open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, reclaiming and holding above $90,000 would be viewed as a sign of renewed confidence and could catalyze range expansion to the upside.

What the indicators suggest

• On‑chain metrics continue to show accumulation by long‑term holders, which can act as a structural support over time.
• Spot and perpetual futures funding rates remain mixed, reflecting selective risk appetite among leveraged traders.
• Volume patterns indicate consolidation rather than a transition to a sustained trending phase.

Altcoins lag while Ether shows relative strength

While bitcoin traded in a tight band, ether outperformed on a weekly basis. The divergence underscores a market where investors are selective, favoring certain narratives and network fundamentals over broad speculative positioning.

Major altcoins such as Solana, XRP, Dogecoin and Cardano recorded declines, continuing a trend of underperformance for many non‑ETH tokens. This selective weakness has maintained bitcoin’s sizable market share, keeping dominance elevated relative to earlier in the year.

Macro calendar and central bank influence

Traders are positioning ahead of a dense slate of macroeconomic releases and central bank events over the coming days. Key items include U.S. employment indicators, inflation readings, purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), and a series of central bank speeches that market participants will parse for guidance on policy direction.

In the United States, a cluster of employment statistics — including payroll-related reports and weekly jobless claims — and fresh inflation data will be watched closely for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Market sensitivity to interest‑rate expectations remains high; stronger‑than‑expected labour or inflation data typically pressures risk assets, while softer readings can relieve some of the near‑term headwinds for risk markets including crypto.

Global policy watchers: BOJ and carry trades

Outside the U.S., attention has centered on the Bank of Japan. Markets in 2025 have priced in a further tightening cycle in Japan, with expectations that the BOJ may raise rates to around 0.75% at an upcoming meeting. While such a level remains modest by global standards, the shift from an ultra‑accommodative stance to a gradually tighter policy can have outsized effects on cross‑border liquidity.

One transmission mechanism is the yen‑funded carry trade. If Japanese rates rise and the BOJ signals a continued normalization, the carry trade — which had been a source of dollar and yen liquidity into risk assets — could unwind or change character, reducing a source of funding that has supported risk activity in prior years.

2025 market context and structural trends

Entering the second half of 2025, the crypto ecosystem has been shaped by a mix of structural and cyclical forces. Several factors are relevant to the near‑term dynamics:

• Post‑halving supply dynamics: The 2024 bitcoin halving reduced miner issuance, tightening the rate of new supply and contributing to longer‑term scarcity narratives.
• Institutional participation: Continued interest from institutional investors in 2025 has been a factor in liquidity profiles, with selective inflows into regulated spot venues and institutional products.
• Regulatory clarity: Jurisdictional regulatory developments during 2024–2025 have influenced custody, product issuance and market accessibility, reinforcing a differentiated landscape for market participants.
• Macro tightening cycles: Global central banks’ responses to inflation and growth in 2025 have increased cross‑asset correlations and elevated sensitivity of crypto prices to macro news flow.

Why these trends matter

These structural changes mean that while crypto retains a unique risk‑return profile, it is not insulated from traditional financial forces. The interplay between reduced token issuance, institutional demand, and macro liquidity conditions will likely continue to shape price action through the year.

Scenarios to watch

Market participants can frame short‑term risk in two broad scenarios:

• Bearish scenario: Failure to defend the $86,000 support level could prompt stop‑loss cascades and draw liquidity providers to widen spreads or step back. That could push bitcoin into a deeper correction and amplify losses across altcoins.
• Bullish scenario: Stabilization above $90,000, accompanied by rising volumes and positive macro headlines, could reassert momentum and invite renewed participation from sidelined investors.

Intermediate outcomes — including extended sideways trading or rotation from bitcoin into selective altcoins — are plausible and depend on the tone of economic releases and central bank communications.

Risk management and trading considerations

Given the current environment of subdued volumes and macro uncertainty, market participants should consider the following approaches:

• Emphasize position sizing and stop placement to manage volatility during low‑liquidity periods.
• Monitor funding rates and order book depth to understand leverage dynamics that can exacerbate moves.
• Watch correlations with macro assets such as equities and rates to gauge spillover risk from broader markets.
• Keep an eye on on‑chain signals — exchange inflows/outflows, long‑term holder balances and miner activity — for additional context beyond price action.

Outlook and closing thoughts

Crypto markets entered this period range‑bound, as investors balanced selective optimism against macro uncertainty. The immediate trajectory will likely depend on the upcoming round of U.S. data and central bank commentary, along with the BOJ’s policy decision and its implications for global liquidity.

For traders and investors, maintaining disciplined risk management and staying informed on macro and on‑chain developments will be essential. While short‑term volatility can create trading opportunities, the broader 2025 narrative remains focused on how monetary policy normalization, institutional involvement and structural supply shifts shape crypto’s path forward.

MEXC will continue to monitor market developments and provide timely analysis as events unfold. Stay attentive to liquidity and macro signals, and approach positions with a clear risk framework.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.