Bitcoin Hashrate Slumps Amid China Mining Shutdowns

Overview: Sudden Drop in Bitcoin Hashrate

Bitcoin’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA) hashrate recorded a notable decline in late 2025, falling from roughly 1.1 ZH/s to slightly above 1 ZH/s. Industry observers describe the movement as the steepest post-halving contraction since the 2024 halving event. The pullback coincides with reports of large-scale mining machine shutdowns in parts of China, a sustained slump in miner revenue metrics and a modest projected easing in mining difficulty.

What Happened: Machine Shutdowns and Hashrate Impact

Recent accounts from industry insiders indicate that tens to hundreds of thousands of mining rigs were taken offline in China over a short period. Estimates based on observed exahash shifts suggest a one-day drop of about 100 EH/s, representing roughly an 8% decline from prior levels.

Using common performance averages for contemporary ASIC miners—around 250 TH/s per device—this magnitude of computational loss would equate to more than 400,000 machines exiting operation. The disruption appears concentrated in specific geographic regions where farms scaled back operations one after another.

Key on-chain and operational indicators

• 30-day SMA hashrate: down from ~1.1 ZH/s to just above 1 ZH/s.
• Estimated immediate hashrate loss: ~100 EH/s (~8%).
• Rough machine count offline: >400,000 (based on 250 TH/s average).
• Hash price: near $37 per PH/s, a multi-year low for revenue per unit of hashrate.
• Projected mining difficulty adjustment: a decline of approximately 3%.

Mining Economics: Pressure on Revenues

Miners face compounding pressures in this environment. Hash price—the measure of miner revenue per unit of computational power—has hovered near multi-year lows, compressing margins for both large-scale farms and smaller operators. Lower hash prices reflect weaker network rewards relative to the cost of running and maintaining equipment, especially when combined with higher electricity or financing costs.

For many operators, a sustained reduction in hash price makes continued operation uneconomical at existing energy and hardware cost structures. This dynamic helps explain the wave of offline equipment: sites may be pausing operations, powering down aging rigs, or relocating assets to lower-cost jurisdictions.

Network Effects and Security Considerations

A drop in global hashrate reduces the total computational power securing Bitcoin’s network, which has implications for block propagation and short-term network resilience. However, Bitcoin’s self-adjusting difficulty mechanism is expected to partially mitigate these effects:

• Difficulty adjustments occur roughly every two weeks and are designed to keep average block times near 10 minutes.
• The current projections indicate a modest downward difficulty adjustment (~3%), which would restore block production pace and slightly increase per-miner reward share once implemented.

While a single-day or short-run hashrate decline is not unusual, sustained reductions would draw attention from developers, exchanges and institutional participants concerned with overall network stability and transaction confirmation times.

Regional Shifts in Mining Distribution

China’s mining landscape has been evolving since major regulatory shifts in previous years. The latest shutdowns point to renewed volatility in regional mining footprints. When large clusters of equipment in a single region reduce output, other regions with active operations inherently gain a larger share of global hashrate.

Consequences of such redistribution include:

• Short-term increases in block rewards for miners in active zones, improving their revenue profile.
• Possible logistical and capital reallocations as operators seek jurisdictions with stable power and regulatory regimes.
• Heightened scrutiny by local authorities and stakeholders around grid impact, permitting and tax treatment of mining operations.

Market Context in 2025

Entering the end of 2025, several macro and crypto-specific trends frame the hashrate story:

• Post-2024 halving dynamics continue to play out, with fewer BTC block rewards per block prompting efficiency and cost-sensitivity among miners.
• Macro sentiment around interest rates and risk assets has influenced capital flows into mining infrastructure and secondary markets for used equipment.
• Institutional appetite for spot and derivatives exposure to Bitcoin remains robust, but miner balance sheets are more exposed to operational cost swings and energy pricing.
• Technological turnover—newer, more energy-efficient ASICs—means older machines are often retired or scrapped when revenue dips.

These factors help explain why a one-time operational shock in a major producing region can have outsized, immediate effects on global hashrate and miner economics.

Implications for Traders, Investors and Miners

The hashrate contraction carries implications across user groups:

For traders and investors

• Short-term volatility may increase as markets respond to perceived network fragility and miner capitulation risk.
• Reduced hashrate can be interpreted as lower network security in the short run, which some market participants may view negatively.
• Conversely, difficulty reductions can temporarily improve miner profitability and reduce selling pressure, a potential bullish signal for price over medium horizons.

For miners and operators

• Operators should model scenarios for sustained lower hash prices and colder seasons where energy costs fluctuate.
• Options include idling inefficient rigs, pursuing consolidation or relocation, entering into power purchase agreements, or refinancing to manage cash flow.
• Upgrading to higher-efficiency hardware yields long-term advantages, but requires capital and favorable market timing.

Outlook and Near-Term Scenarios

Looking ahead into 2026, several plausible scenarios could unfold based on current signals:

• Rebound Scenario: Difficulty drops and miners with lower marginal costs continue operating, stabilizing hashrate while market prices recover, encouraging idle rigs to return.
• Consolidation Scenario: Smaller or higher-cost operations remain offline, ownership consolidates among well-capitalized miners, and the network hashrate recovers more slowly.
• Geographic Shift Scenario: Mining activity migrates to regions with abundant low-cost power and clearer regulatory frameworks, altering long-term hashrate distribution.

Each scenario carries unique implications for transaction processing, miner profitability and investors’ risk assessments.

Policy and Energy Considerations

Energy availability and regulatory clarity will remain central to mining’s long-term trajectory. Policymakers in power-constrained regions will continue to evaluate the trade-offs between industrial power consumption and grid stability.

Potential policy outcomes that could shape the next 12–18 months include:

• Regulatory incentives or restrictions on large-scale mining facilities.
• Grid-level interventions to limit or throttle mining during peak demand periods.
• Energy market reforms that change pricing dynamics for high-demand, flexible loads such as mining.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s 30-day SMA hashrate experienced a steep decline in late 2025 after a concentrated shutdown of mining equipment in parts of China.
• The immediate hashrate loss corresponds to an estimated drop of ~100 EH/s and may represent more than 400,000 offline machines based on typical rig performance.
• Miners are contending with depressed hash prices and narrowing margins; a modest difficulty reduction is projected to provide temporary relief.
• Regional shifts in mining activity, energy policy and equipment turnover will influence hashrate recovery and the broader market outlook into 2026.

How Market Participants Should Prepare

Participants across the ecosystem can take practical steps to respond to continued volatility and structural change:

• Miners: Stress-test balance sheets under lower-price and higher-cost scenarios; consider fleet optimization and cost-reduction strategies.
• Investors: Monitor on-chain metrics (hashrate, difficulty, miner revenue) alongside macro indicators to gauge network health.
• Exchanges and infrastructure providers: Ensure contingency plans for spikes in transaction times or temporary network performance shifts.

Conclusion

The late-2025 contraction in Bitcoin hashrate underscores how regional operational changes and market economics can quickly reshape the network’s computational profile. While difficulty adjustments and geographic redistribution of miners offer mechanisms for stabilization, the episode highlights persistent sensitivities in mining economics—especially as the industry adapts to post-halving reward structures and evolving energy and regulatory conditions. Observers will watch closely for how hashrate, miner sentiment and market prices interact through 2026 as the network finds a new equilibrium.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
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