Analyst Warns XRP Could Fall Below $1

Market backdrop: crypto volatility enters 2025

The cryptocurrency market entered 2025 with elevated volatility and renewed debate about which tokens will benefit from incoming institutional capital. Bitcoin’s swing moves have continued to set the tone for risk assets, and spillover effects into altcoins remain pronounced. Against that backdrop, recent commentary from a market investor has drawn attention by predicting that XRP — Ripple’s native token — could decline below $1 over the coming years.

This analysis outlines the investor’s thesis, evaluates the underlying arguments, places the claim in a broader 2025 market context, and highlights what traders and long-term holders should watch next.

Investor prediction: XRP could “settle well below $1”

Investor Anthony Di Pizio recently stated his view that XRP might fall under $1 within a multi-year timeframe. His forecast is rooted in a combination of market-structure concerns, token-specific utility questions, and expectations about how exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional demand will treat XRP compared with assets such as Bitcoin.

Di Pizio’s warning has renewed debate about whether regulatory clarity and product launches that supported XRP in recent years will be sufficient to sustain long-term price appreciation.

Core arguments behind the bearish outlook

• Market leadership and spillover: Bitcoin remains the dominant market driver. Sharp drawdowns in BTC historically depress altcoins; the investor notes that extended weakness in Bitcoin can accelerate declines across the broader market.
• Limited mandatory utility for banks: Ripple’s payments infrastructure supports fiat rails and can operate without mandatory use of XRP. If institutional clients prefer fiat or stablecoins for liquidity and settlement, XRP’s network demand could be constrained.
• Stablecoin competition: Ripple’s own stablecoin initiatives and the broader proliferation of USD-pegged stablecoins present a lower-volatility choice for cross-border flows, potentially diminishing use cases for a volatile token like XRP.
• ETF dynamics may differ: While spot Bitcoin ETFs unlocked a major institutional gateway in prior cycles, the investor argues that similar ETF listings for XRP may not generate comparable demand. The rationale is that Bitcoin is perceived as a scarce digital asset with store-of-value attributes that XRP lacks.
• Token characteristics: Criticisms around decentralization, issuance policies, and tokenomics have been cited as reasons why some institutional investors might avoid long-term allocations to XRP.
• Historical precedent: XRP’s sharp decline after the 2018 peak is referenced as a reminder that tokens with speculative run-ups can lose substantial value when sentiment reverses.

Regulatory developments and structural shifts

Regulatory clarity remains a central variable in the XRP debate. Legal disputes and regulatory uncertainty that dominated earlier years created a significant overhang on XRP’s market performance.

In recent years, some jurisdictions advanced clearer frameworks for crypto assets and, in certain cases, approved spot ETF structures that provide institutional channels into digital assets. These changes have reduced one source of uncertainty, but regulators continue to differentiate assets based on use case, network governance, and compliance posture.

Whether regulatory approvals lead to meaningful demand for a token often depends on whether institutions view the asset as a viable portfolio allocation or a useful operational tool for payments.

2025 macro and market conditions that matter

The macroeconomic and market environment in 2025 will influence how predictions like the one above play out. Key themes to consider include:

• Interest rate trajectory: Central bank policy and real rates affect risk asset appetite. A pivot toward easing would likely be supportive for crypto, while tighter policy could pressure prices.
• Institutional adoption patterns: Capital flows into crypto ETFs and structured products will determine whether some altcoins can detach from Bitcoin’s price action.
• Liquidity and market structure: Order-book depth, derivatives positioning, and exchange-level liquidity will impact volatility and price discovery for tokens like XRP.
• FX and cross-border payments demand: Geopolitical shifts and trade patterns can increase real-world demand for faster, lower-cost payment rails — an area where Ripple’s technology competes with other solutions.

How these factors can cut both ways

If macro conditions become more accommodative and institutional allocations broaden beyond Bitcoin, XRP could benefit through increased trading volumes and product listings. Conversely, a risk-off environment or preference for low-volatility payment rails could reduce demand for a volatile token.

Counterarguments and scenarios supporting XRP

Despite the bearish case, several counterarguments suggest pathways for XRP to maintain value or appreciate:

• Enterprise adoption: Continued partnerships between Ripple and financial institutions for specific cross-border corridors could generate predictable demand for on-chain liquidity.
• Product innovation: New use cases, integrations, or protocol upgrades that improve decentralization or utility could shift perception among institutional investors.
• Niche market positioning: Even if not a broad store of value, XRP may find sustainable use in targeted liquidity markets where speed and settlement cost advantages are decisive.
• ETF or institutional product tailwinds: While the investor argues ETFs may have limited impact, certain structured products could nonetheless increase institutional exposure and trading activity.

Trading and investment considerations

Whether an investor leans bullish or bearish, risk management and time horizon are critical. XRP’s past performance shows the token can experience dramatic swings in compressed timeframes.

Practical considerations for traders and holders include:

• Position sizing tied to portfolio risk tolerance.
• Use of stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage volatility.
• Hedging strategies for larger allocations, including options or inverse instruments where available.
• Monitoring on-chain metrics such as active addresses, transaction volume, and exchange flows.
• Reevaluation as new regulatory developments and institutional products emerge.

For users trading on platforms like MEXC, advanced order types, real-time market data, and built-in risk-management tools can assist in executing these strategies under volatile conditions.

Key catalysts to watch in 2025

Investors should track a concise set of catalysts that could validate or invalidate the view that XRP will decline below $1:

• Regulatory rulings: Any new policy guidance or legal outcomes affecting token classification and custody rules.
• ETF inflows and product launches: Size and duration of institutional flows into XRP-related products compared with other assets.
• Enterprise use-case announcements: Major bank or payment-processor integrations that materially increase on-chain liquidity demand for XRP.
• On-chain health: Trends in transaction counts, active wallets, and network fees.
• Macro shifts: Interest-rate policy, geopolitical tensions, and risk-on/risk-off cycles that influence liquidity into crypto markets.

Conclusion: balanced risk perspective

The prediction that XRP could “settle well below $1” reflects a defensible bearish scenario rooted in token utility concerns, stablecoin competition, and the potential for divergent ETF outcomes compared with Bitcoin. At the same time, alternative scenarios exist in which targeted adoption, product innovation, or favorable market conditions prevent or reverse a steep decline.

For traders and investors in 2025, the prudent course is to remain data-driven and to update convictions as new information arrives. Key indicators — regulatory developments, institutional flows, and concrete enterprise adoption — will ultimately determine whether bearish forecasts materialize or are proven overly pessimistic.

Market participants should prioritize risk management, diversify exposures, and follow on-chain and macro indicators closely. Users trading on major exchanges such as MEXC can access a range of tools to help navigate these scenarios while maintaining disciplined risk controls.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.