First U.S. XRP Spot ETF Launches With $58M Day-One Volume: Is $100 XRP Coming?

November 14, 2025 marks a historic milestone for XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market: the launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF. Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF debuted with $58 million in first-day trading volume, narrowly surpassing the Bitwise Solana ETF’s opening performance and signaling strong institutional appetite for regulated XRP exposure. Combined with ISO 20022’s full implementation on November 22—a global payment messaging standard that XRP Ledger natively supports—speculation is mounting that XRP could target triple-digit prices.

But is $100 XRP realistic, or is it irrational exuberance divorced from fundamentals? With wash trading concerns, market manipulation fears, and XRP’s historical underperformance relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum, separating signal from noise requires examining the ETF launch mechanics, institutional demand drivers, and technical realities of XRP’s market structure.

The Launch: XRPC ETF’s $58M Opening Day

Key Details:

• ETF Name: Canary XRPC Spot XRP ETF
• Ticker: XRPC
• Launch Date: November 14, 2025
• Day-One Volume: $58 million
• Comparison: Narrowly beat Bitwise Solana ETF’s launch volume
• Custodian: Likely institutional-grade custody (Coinbase Custody or similar)

Why $58M Matters:

First-day trading volume provides insight into institutional demand. For context:

• Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) launch: ~$1 billion day-one volume
• Ethereum ETF average: $200-400M day-one volume
• Solana ETF (Bitwise): ~$55M day-one volume
• XRP ETF (XRPC): $58M day-one volume

XRPC’s $58M positions it as strong performer relative to altcoin ETFs, though nowhere near Bitcoin’s institutional dominance. The fact that it exceeded Solana ETF—despite Solana’s higher market cap and developer activity—suggests genuine XRP institutional interest.

Market Reaction:

XRP price action on launch day was muted:

• Pre-launch: $2.50-$2.60
• Post-launch: $2.55-$2.65 (+2-3% modest gain)

The subdued price response despite ETF launch suggests market had already priced in the event, or profit-taking from previous rallies (Ripple’s $500M raise, Mastercard partnership) absorbed buying pressure.

ISO 20022 Goes Live November 22: Why It Matters for XRP

Beyond the ETF launch, XRP is positioned to benefit from ISO 20022 full implementation on November 22, 2025.

What Is ISO 20022?

ISO 20022 is a global standard for financial messaging that enables richer data exchange between banks, payment processors, and financial institutions. Key features:

• Structured data: Includes detailed transaction information (invoices, compliance data, remittance details)
• Interoperability: Enables seamless communication across different payment systems
• Global adoption: Over 70 countries and 10,000+ financial institutions adopting

Why XRP Benefits:

XRP Ledger (XRPL) was designed with ISO 20022 compliance from inception. This means:

• Banks using ISO 20022 can integrate XRPL without costly retrofitting
• XRP becomes natural bridge currency for ISO 20022-compliant cross-border payments
• Ripple’s partnerships with banks position XRP as preferred settlement layer

November 22 Significance:

Full implementation means banks must use ISO 20022 for all cross-border SWIFT payments. This deadline creates urgency for financial institutions to adopt compliant infrastructure—potentially accelerating XRP adoption.

If XRP captures even 1% of global cross-border payment volume ($150 trillion annually):

• $1.5 trillion in XRP-settled payments per year
• Assuming 0.1% transaction fees, $1.5 billion in annual revenue
• With XRP’s current market cap (~$145B at $2.60), capturing this volume could justify 2-5x price appreciation

ISO 20022 doesn’t mandate XRP usage—it’s a messaging standard, not a cryptocurrency requirement. Banks can be ISO 20022 compliant without touching XRP. The connection between ISO 20022 adoption and XRP price may be overstated by enthusiasts.

The $100 XRP Target: Realistic or Hype?

Social media speculation following the ETF launch suggests XRP could reach $100—a 3,746% gain from current $2.60. Let’s examine this claim critically.

The Bull Case for $100 XRP:

Market Cap Comparison

• At $100, XRP market cap would be ~$5.6 trillion (56 billion circulating supply)
• Bitcoin’s current market cap: ~$2 trillion
• Gold’s market cap: ~$15 trillion
• If XRP becomes THE global settlement layer, capturing 1/3 of gold’s monetary premium isn’t impossible

Institutional FOMO

• ETF launch creates easy access for institutions
• If institutional allocations mirror Bitcoin ETF success, billions could flow into XRP
• $100B+ in institutional capital could push XRP to $15-$30 (still far from $100)

Ripple Ecosystem Expansion

• $95B in annual payment volume
• RLUSD stablecoin at $1B market cap
• Mastercard partnership, Gemini XRP credit card
• If ecosystem grows 10x, XRP could follow proportionally

The Bear Case Against $100 XRP:

Market Cap Reality Check

• $5.6 trillion market cap would make XRP larger than Bitcoin + Ethereum combined
• This requires XRP capturing majority of crypto institutional capital—highly unlikely
• More realistic ceiling: $10-$20 (2-4x current market cap to $300-600B)

Token Supply Overhang

• 56 billion XRP circulating, 100 billion total supply
• Ripple still holds billions in escrow, releasing periodically
• This supply creates persistent selling pressure capping appreciation

Historical Underperformance

• XRP’s ATH was $3.84 in January 2018 (7 years ago)
• Since then, Bitcoin 30x’d, Ethereum 25x’d, Solana launched and 100x’d
• XRP has underperformed almost every major crypto despite Ripple’s progress

Wash Trading and Manipulation Concerns

• Reports suggest significant wash trading on XRP markets
• Low liquidity outside major exchanges creates manipulation vulnerability
• Regulatory scrutiny may intensify if manipulation evidence emerges

Realistic Price Targets:

Based on fundamental analysis:

• Conservative: $5-$8 (2-3x current, market cap $280-450B)
• Moderate: $10-$15 (4-6x current, market cap $560-840B)
• Optimistic: $20-$30 (8-12x current, market cap $1.1-1.7T)
• Moonshot: $50+ (20x+, requires Bitcoin-level adoption—unlikely)

$100 XRP would require either:

• Complete crypto market meltup (Bitcoin at $500K+)
• XRP replacing Bitcoin as institutional favorite (virtually impossible)
• Massive reduction in circulating supply (buyback/burn—not planned)

XRP ETF vs Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs: What to Expect

Bitcoin ETF Performance (2024-2025):

• Launched with $1B+ day-one volume
• Accumulated $139B AUM within 10 months
• Drove Bitcoin from $40K to $126K (+215%)

Ethereum ETF Performance (2024-2025):

• Launched with $200-400M day-one volume
• Accumulated $20-30B AUM within months
• ETH rallied from $2,200 to $4,000 (+82%)

XRP ETF Likely Performance:

Given $58M day-one volume (5.8% of Bitcoin ETF, 14.5-29% of Ethereum ETF):

• Expected AUM accumulation: $5-15B over 12 months
• Price impact: 30-80% appreciation if institutional flows materialize
• Realistic target: $3.50-$4.50 by Q4 2026

This suggests moderate institutional interest—not transformative like Bitcoin ETF, but meaningful enough to support gradual appreciation.

Wash Trading and Manipulation Concerns

A shadow hangs over XRP ETF launch: concerns about wash trading and market manipulation.

The Allegations:

Critics point to:

• Sudden volume spikes on low-liquidity exchanges
• Price pumps coinciding with Ripple announcements (coordination?)
• Large buy walls appearing then disappearing (spoofing?)
• Unusually high trading volume relative to market cap

Why This Matters:

If SEC or regulators determine XRP markets are manipulated:

• ETF could face delisting or suspension
• Institutional buyers may withdraw
• Price could crash 30-50% on regulatory action

Counterargument:

• XRP Ledger is decentralized and transparent
• Ripple has cooperated extensively with regulators post-SEC settlement
• Wash trading exists across all crypto markets, not unique to XRP

Investors should monitor regulatory developments closely. Any SEC investigation into XRP market structure would be massively bearish.

How to Trade XRP ETF Launch

For Conservative Investors:

• Wait for 30-60 days of ETF performance data
• Monitor AUM accumulation (target: $2-5B in first quarter)
• Enter if institutional flows accelerate, avoid if AUM stagnates
• Target $3.50-$5.00 over 12-18 months

For Moderate Traders:

• Enter small positions at current levels ($2.50-$2.70)
• Add on breakout above $3.00 (confirms ETF momentum)
• Use stop-losses below $2.20
• Target profits at $3.50 (+35%), $4.50 (+73%), $6.00 (+130%)

For Speculators:

• Trade volatility around ISO 20022 November 22 implementation
• Expect 10-20% swings in either direction
• Use tight stops and take profits quickly
• Don’t believe $100 targets without fundamental justification

Risk Management:

• Allocate maximum 3-5% of crypto portfolio to XRP
• Monitor wash trading allegations—exit immediately if regulatory action appears imminent
• Don’t use leverage on XRP (manipulation risk makes stops unreliable)

The Bottom Line: Historic Milestone, But Temper Expectations

The launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF with $58M day-one volume is undeniably historic—XRP joins Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as cryptocurrencies with regulated institutional investment vehicles. Combined with ISO 20022 going live November 22 and Ripple’s $95B in annual payment volume, the fundamental case for XRP has never been stronger.

However, $100 XRP targets are disconnected from reality. At $100, XRP’s market cap would exceed Bitcoin and Ethereum combined—requiring either complete market meltup or XRP displacing Bitcoin as institutional favorite. Neither is plausible.

More realistic targets: $5-$15 over 12-24 months if institutional flows materialize and Ripple’s ecosystem continues expanding. This still represents 2-6x upside from current levels—attractive returns without requiring magical thinking.

For investors, the XRP ETF launch offers legitimate exposure to payment-focused blockchain infrastructure backed by real partnerships and institutional adoption. Just don’t confuse institutional access with guaranteed moonshots. Trade accordingly.

Disclaimer: This material does not constitute advice on investments, taxes, legal matters, finance, accounting, consulting, or any other related services, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. MEXC Learn provides information for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and invest cautiously. All investment decisions and outcomes are the sole responsibility of the user.