In January-February, the precious metals market updated the historical maximum. Capital went into gold and silver against the background of the weakening dollar and the retreat of US stock indices.
Source: Santiment
Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins also gave up positions. The largest digital currency on the MEXC exchange MEXC on Wednesday, February 4, dropped below 72,000 USDT.
Given the rapid rebound, we can assume that this level has become a local bottom for BTC.
On Thursday night, the coin jumped above 73,000 USDT, but the pressure could intensify at any moment, as large and medium-sized investors are still the main sellers and can dump another batch of bitcoins
Source: MEXC
- The RSI relative strength index is still in the neutral zone, which balances the chances of strengthening and retreating the asset, the MEXC Research team notes.
Ether (ETH) faced the same problems. The largest altcoin was able to stay above $2,000 following the results of recent sales.
However, the position of the asset remains uncertain, and without whale support, ETH will not be able to approach the resistance zone at $3,000.
The main theses:
- Large investors are not in a hurry to go hunting. If in the coming days we do not see whale swims, then bitcoin may drop below $70,000.
- Social media sentiment is one of the main benchmarks for traders and analysts. Therefore, we will analyze the behavior of users of Telegram, Reddit, 4Chat and X.
- The exchange balance of ether this week began to grow again, which creates additional risks for the coin. If a new reset takes place in the coming days, then the ETH rate is unlikely to be able to stay above $2,000.
Bitcoin can expect support in the range of $60,000 to $67,000
The fall in gold prices this week followed the achievement of a local peak at the turn of January-February.
Euphoria on social media during the precious metals rally signaled that profit-taking would begin profit-taking would begin in the coming days.
Investors began to redistribute capital in favor of shares of IT companies and cryptocurrencies after they managed to break the jackpot on the rise of gold and silver.
The retreat of bitcoin this week slowed, and there were chances of a return of the bullish trend. However, initially the digital currency market will have to go through a consolidation phase, which may be delayed.
Source: MEXC
- In mid-January, whales whose wallets contain at least 1,000 BTC predominantly accumulated cryptocurrency.
According to Santiment, in total, this group of investors purchased 104,340 coins. Their reserves increased by 1.5%, and the number of daily transactions worth more than $1 million last month was at the highest level since the fall of 2025.
Source: Santiment
But at the end of January, whales and sharks controlling more than 10 coins began to aggressively sell cryptocurrency. Only in the last two weeks, these wallets sold 50,181 BTC. Now they buy only small addresses with a balance of up to 0.01 BTC.
Source: Santiment
If whales and sharks sell in the coming weeks, then there will be risks of Bitcoin dropping below $70,000.
The retreat of BTC in February was the strongest since April last year, that is, since the conduct of tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
To assess the immediate prospects, it is necessary to analyze data on the whale accumulation of bitcoin.
- Trump s victory in the presidential election in November 2024 was a factor that triggered the famous BTC rally, as a result of which the coin soared above $100,000 for the first time in its history.
According to WhaleMap, in the second half of 2024, ahead of the US election, whales were hoarding at prices ranging from $60,000 to $67,000.
A whale cluster formed here.
Source: WhaleMap
According to analysts, investors who bought the cryptocurrency range from $60,000 to $67,000 will try to support the asset if there are risks of drawdown below $70,000.
- If the pressure intensifies in the coming days, then we can see an attempt by large investors to prevent a stronger retreat of bitcoin.
If this support zone does not work, then there will be a threat of a chain reaction with the subsequent drawdown of BTC below $60,000. Such a negative scenario is possible if not only whales, but also sharks, the MEXC Research team notes.
Key findings:
- At the end of January, whale wallets changed their tactics and began to sell bitcoins. The funds received as a result of this implementation, they sent to the precious metals market.
- The subsequent stabilization of BTC was the result of the redistribution of capital after taking profits on gold and silver.
- Risks of bitcoin retreat still remain. However, a quick rebound in the middle of this week may signal the achievement of a local bottom, after which the asset will be in the consolidation phase.
Social media users do not rule out falling BTC below $60,000
On Thursday morning, the bitcoin rate fell below $71,000. The pressure increased sharply after the largest digital currency briefly rose above $73,000 the day before. Those groups of traders who suffered losses in early February began selling.
- In such a situation, a panic reset suggests that investors who are disappointed in the prospects of a digital asset are leaving the market.
On social media sentiment is deteriorating, however, Santiment has not yet recorded signs of a revival of traders who resume purchases following the fall.
Source: Santiment
We can not exclude the retreat of BTC below $70,000, but after that in Telegram, X, 4Chat and Reddit may increase the number of posts with calls to buy at comfortable prices.
It is necessary to pay attention to the zone from $60,000 to $67,000, which we previously pointed out with reference to to WhaleMap data. A powerful whale cluster formed here on the eve of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
This zone became the starting point for the famous Bitcoin race, which last year periodically updated the historical maximum.
Source: MEXC
After BTC slipped below $71,000, ether (ETH) was in a critical situation. Sales on the cryptocurrency market resumed during trading in the Asia-Pacific region. As a result, the ETH rate retreated to $2090 by the beginning of the European session.
On the MEXC exchange last night, the air decreased to 2068 USDT, but quickly rebounded to 2081 USDT. Support for the coin is provided by investors who are in a difficult position and at any time may be in the loss zone.
- If support during trading in the US does not increase tonight, then the risks of falling ETH below $2,000 may become real, the MEXC Research team notes.
Source: CryptoQuant
The exchange balance of the air has been growing since January 29, which indicates the desire of investors to sell the asset as quickly as possible. But in parallel, opportunities open up for those who enter the market at the moments of cryptocurrency retreat.
It is this cohort of traders, set up for long-term coin storage, that accelerates the achievement of a local peak.
Key findings:
- In social networks, the negative is increasing against the background of the retreat of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The growth in the number of comments focusing on the bearish trend contributes to the flight of alarmists and stabilization of the market.
- In the coming days, you need to focus on the support zone in the range from $60,000 to $67,000, which can determine the trajectory of BTC.
- The position of the ether became critical when there were risks of its drawdown below $2,000. The receipt of ETH at exchange addresses can signal both preparation for a new reset and the usual redistribution of funds.
Conclusion
- In January-February, whales and sharks changed tactics and began to sell accumulated bitcoins. The pressure of these cohorts of investors was one of the main factors that provoked the painful retreat of the digital currency.
- In social networks, fears are increasing that bitcoin will not be able to hold above $70,000. In the coming days, the risks of drawdown may become real if the situation in the stock markets does not stabilize.
- The main support zone for BTC was formed in the second half of 2024. Whales will try to support the asset to prevent its fall. Support is expected in the range of $60,000 to $67,000.
- Ether is also under pressure and could retreat below $2,000. Investors have been sending ETH to exchange addresses since late last month, which can be seen as preparation for a new reset.
- However, it cannot be ruled out that ether holders redistribute funds, and after that they will again begin to withdraw coins for offline storage, the MEXC Research team notes.
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