Ripple Price Prediction: XRP to Stay Bearish While Trading Below This Key Level

Ripple (XRP) is facing renewed selling pressure in late January 2026, struggling to regain bullish momentum despite the recent conclusion of its long-standing legal battle with the SEC. Trading at $1.89 during the European session on Wednesday, the token has shed approximately 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trapped in a tightening consolidation range. Technical indicators and on-chain data now suggest that XRP remains vulnerable to a deeper correction as long as it trades below the psychological and technical barrier of $2.00.

The “Sell the News” Hangover

The current bearish sentiment comes as a surprise to casual observers who expected a parabolic run following the January 23 announcement that Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had agreed to a $50 million settlement. While this effectively ended the multi-year regulatory cloud hanging over the asset, the market reaction has been a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.

Instead of skyrocketing to new highs, XRP has retraced from its mid-January peak of $2.17, weighed down by a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. Investors are currently risk-averse, spooked by the escalating trade tensions regarding the “Greenland Tariffs” and the unprecedented investigation into Federal Reserve leadership, which has sent shockwaves through broader equity and crypto markets.

Technical Analysis: The $2.00 Ceiling

From a technical perspective, the bears are currently in control. XRP/USDT is trading decisively below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently sitting at $1.98. This alignment signals that the intermediate trend has shifted downward.

The most critical level for traders to watch is the $2.00 mark. This price point represents a confluence of resistance:

1. Psychological Resistance: Round numbers often act as mental barriers for retail traders.
2. Structural Resistance: The $2.00 – $2.02 zone marks the breakdown level from the early January sell-off.
3. Moving Average Resistance: The 50-day EMA is hovering just below this level, acting as a dynamic ceiling.

As long as the daily candle closes remain below $2.00, the path of least resistance is downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering near 42, indicating weak momentum but not yet oversold conditions, suggesting there is still room for the price to fall before a relief bounce occurs.

Bearish Targets: How Low Can It Go?

If the bulls fail to reclaim the $1.90 support zone—which is currently being tested—technical models project two potential downside targets:

• Primary Support ($1.80): This level served as a solid floor during the consolidation phase in late 2025. A breach here would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders from leveraged long positions.
• The “Goblin Town” Scenario ($1.61): Should macro conditions worsen, analysts point to the April 2025 low of $1.61 as the ultimate bearish objective. This would represent a further 15% decline from current prices.

“The structure is undeniably heavy,” notes technical analyst Silas Thorne. “We are seeing lower highs and lower lows on the 4-hour chart. Unless XRP can reclaim $2.00 on significant volume, the $1.61 target is not just possible, it’s probable.”

On-Chain Data Signals Caution

Supporting the bearish technical outlook is a concerning trend in on-chain activity. Data from the XRP Ledger (XRPL) reveals a sharp decline in network participation. Active addresses have dropped by approximately 3% in the last week, falling to roughly 45,000 daily active users.

Historically, a divergence between price and daily active addresses (DAA) is a bearish signal. When price remains stable or drops while network activity plummets, it indicates a lack of genuine demand to support the valuation. Furthermore, exchange inflows have ticked up slightly over the last 48 hours, suggesting that some long-term holders may be preparing to offload their bags amidst the uncertainty.

The Bullish Invalidations

For the bearish thesis to be invalidated, XRP bulls need to stage a high-volume breakout above $2.00 and subsequently the $2.15 resistance level.

A daily close above $2.00 would reclaim the 50-day EMA and likely force short-sellers to cover their positions, potentially fueling a rally back toward the $2.40 range. However, with trading volume currently sitting at a lackluster $2.23 billion (down from $5 billion earlier in the month), the buying pressure required for such a reversal appears absent.

Conclusion

While the long-term fundamental picture for Ripple remains stronger than ever post-settlement, the short-term reality is dictated by technicals and macro-fear. For now, XRP is a “no-trade zone” for conservative investors until it either reclaims the $2.00 key level or flushes down to major support at $1.61.

Investors are advised to exercise extreme caution and manage risk tightly, as volatility is expected to remain high leading into the month-end close.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information. MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.