Why XRP Price Faces Ongoing Downward Pressure

Summary

In 2025, XRP has repeatedly failed to sustain gains despite bullish headlines around ETF approvals. On-chain flow analysis points to concentrated selling from large holders that has translated into persistent exchange inflows and a weakening price structure. This report reviews the on-chain drivers behind the recent declines, outlines key technical levels, and provides a broader market context and practical monitoring points for traders and investors.

On-chain flows reveal concentrated selling pressure

Recent on-chain metrics show a notable pattern: a disproportionate share of exchange inflows consists of transfers from large addresses — commonly referred to as whales — which hold between roughly 100,000 and 1 million XRP, and those that control more than 1 million XRP. These flows consistently increase the available supply on centralized trading venues and appear to be a primary factor exerting downward pressure on price.

Several characteristics of this activity are important:

• Inflow spikes from large addresses often precede or coincide with price pullbacks, suggesting these transfers are being used to source sell-side liquidity.
• After major inflow events, the market repeatedly forms lower highs and lower lows, indicating supply is outpacing demand at current price levels.
• The selling pattern is typically steady rather than a single catastrophic dump — a persistent, measured increase in available coin supply on exchanges.

How exchange inflows translate to price action

When significant amounts of XRP move onto exchanges, they feed the sell side of the order books. If there are no offsetting large spot buyers, the additional liquidity tends to depress prices. This dynamic is especially effective when selling concentrates around certain psychological or technical price points, where buyers are more likely to enter and provide liquidity.

ETF narrative and behavioral dynamics

The arrival of ETF-related stories in 2025 changed market expectations and behavior. While ETF approvals or launches can attract new institutional capital, they also create narratives that sophisticated holders can trade around.

Key behavioral observations include:

• Accumulation by large holders in advance of an ETF-related event, followed by systematic transfers to exchanges as market attention rises.
• Sales into narrative-driven retail demand: large holders appear to use heightened retail interest as an opportunity to sell without resorting to aggressive single-ticket dumps.
• Recurring resistance near specific price levels where sell-side liquidity consistently appears, compressing rallies and keeping the asset range-bound or trending down.

Why ETF success has not guaranteed sustained rallies

ETF inflows can represent significant capital, but they do not automatically translate into sustained upward pressure on every token. In the case of XRP in 2025, ETFs and related announcements created short-term interest and liquidity, yet the net effect on price has been muted because:

• Whale selling into the ETF narrative increased available supply on exchanges faster than new spot purchases absorbed it.
• Institutional ETF demand has often concentrated in a handful of tradable instruments, leaving broader spot market demand fragmented.
• Market participants who expected immediate retail-led rallies found liquidity instead on the sell side, which capped upside momentum.

Technical levels and risk scenarios

On-chain indicators and recent price responses point to a set of price areas worth watching for potential stabilization or further deterioration.

• Near-term support zone: $1.82–$1.87 — this range has acted as a short-term stabilization area where buyers have intermittently appeared after sell-offs.
• Downside risk: $1.50–$1.66 — if large exchange inflows continue, the market could test these lower support levels as selling pressure persists.
• Key resistance: approximately $1.95 — price approaches this level have frequently attracted renewed selling, preventing durable breakouts.

From a structural perspective, the repeated formation of lower highs and lower lows signals a bearish market regime until exchange inflows diminish and new spot-demand sources appear.

What would invalidate the bearish case?

A sustained reduction in exchange inflows or a notable increase in new institutional spot buying would be the clearest signs of a regime change. Large buy-side orders that absorb sell-side liquidity, or a consistent shift in on-chain movement away from exchange deposits, would provide constructive technical signals for a trend reversal.

2025 market context and broader implications

Several macro and market-specific factors in 2025 are shaping XRP’s price dynamics and investor behavior:

• Institutional adoption: 2025 saw continued growth in institutional crypto products, including spot ETFs, which drew new pools of capital but also concentrated market attention on a few headline assets.
• Liquidity dynamics: As capital rotates into ETFs and other institutional vehicles, liquidity profiles on spot markets can become thinner for altcoins, amplifying the impact of concentrated selling.
• Regulatory clarity: Evolving regulatory signals during 2025 have reduced some uncertainty, enabling institutional participation, yet they also prompted strategic rebalancing by large holders around key milestones.
• Macro environment: Interest rate expectations, global liquidity conditions, and risk sentiment continued to influence crypto flows. Periodic changes in macro sentiment in 2025 affected the balance between speculative retail demand and longer-term institutional allocations.

Collectively, these forces have made price movements more sensitive to large on-chain transfers and to the behavior of a relatively small number of large holders.

What traders and investors should monitor

Active participants should track a mix of on-chain, market, and macro metrics to form a comprehensive view of risk and opportunity.

• Exchange inflows and outflows: rising inflows from large addresses are a bearish signal; net outflows can indicate redistribution to cold storage and reduced sell-side pressure.
• Whale movement patterns: clustering of transfers from large addresses to centralized venues often precedes increased sell-side activity.
• Order book depth and liquidity at key levels: shallow depth increases the price impact of sizable trades.
• ETF and institutional flows: monitor net asset growth and capital allocation trends in institutional products for signs of sustained spot demand.
• Derivatives positioning: futures open interest and funding rates reveal leverage-driven dynamics that can amplify moves.
• Macro indicators: risk-on/off sentiment, rates, and liquidity conditions can shift appetite for crypto risk assets broadly.

Practical risk management tips

• Use position sizing and stop-losses calibrated to volatility and liquidity conditions.
• Consider phased entry and exit strategies to reduce the impact of market swings driven by large, episodic flows.
• Avoid chasing narrative-driven breakouts without confirming on-chain and order book support.
• Maintain diversification across assets and instruments to limit exposure to a single token’s holder dynamics.

Short-term outlook

In the near term, XRP is likely to remain vulnerable while large holder inflows to exchanges continue. The market needs either a sustained reduction in sell-side supply or a meaningful increase in spot demand to shift the trend. Price action around the $1.82–$1.87 support band and the reaction to the $1.95 resistance area will be telling.

Market data currently shows XRP trading around $1.90, with recent intraday volatility reflecting the tug-of-war between narrative-driven demand and supply from large holders. Until on-chain inflows moderate and net new spot buyers appear, the path to a durable rally remains uncertain.

Conclusion

On-chain flow analysis in 2025 indicates that concentrated selling by large holders, compounded by persistent exchange inflows, is a primary factor behind XRP’s recurring price weakness. While ETFs and related institutional products have brought fresh capital into crypto markets, they have not yet offset the supply-side pressure that emerges when whales transfer accumulated positions onto exchanges.

Traders and investors should closely monitor exchange flows, whale activity, order book liquidity, and ETF/institutional trends. These signals will offer the best early warnings of either continued downside risk or the formation of a base that could support renewed upward momentum.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
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Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.