Monad Momentum: MON Rally and Outlook

Overview: MON posts early strength after mainnet launch

Monad’s MON token has drawn market attention following its public mainnet release in late 2025. Despite a broadly weak crypto backdrop, the token registered significant early price appreciation and on-chain activity, supported by structured token distribution and broad exchange access including MEXC.

This article examines the factors behind MON’s rally, summarizes key on-chain and market metrics from launch, and outlines the short-, medium- and long-term scenarios investors and traders should monitor into 2025.

Day-one dynamics: a resilient open

Monad opened its public mainnet with a relatively small portion of its total supply circulating, while a large tranche remained locked for team, investors and treasury. Immediate market moves showed an initial sell-off from unstaked airdrop recipients, quickly met by buy-side demand that pushed prices materially above the public sale level within 24–48 hours.

Key elements that shaped the day-one outcome included:

• Low circulating float at launch, limiting available market supply.
• Structured airdrop targeting active crypto users rather than broad, low-engagement addresses.
• Deep order books on multiple trading platforms, enabling large flows to be absorbed without extreme price collapses.

Price action snapshot

After an initial dip, MON recovered and traded substantially higher than the public sale price. The combination of concentrated early holders and immediate liquidity created an environment where momentum could form even as larger market benchmarks experienced weakness.

Distribution design: a stabilizing force

Distribution mechanics are central to understanding MON’s behavior. The token launch included a sizable airdrop and a public sale that together accounted for most of the circulating supply at genesis, while more than half of the total allocation remained time-locked into later vesting schedules.

• Roughly 4.7 billion tokens were earmarked for airdrops, with a majority claimed by engaged protocol users and contributors.
• A public sale provided additional committed buyers at a set price point, creating a cohort anchored around that reference.
• Insider and treasury allocations were largely time-locked through multi-year schedules, preventing immediate flooding of secondary markets.

By concentrating early tokens into users more likely to interact with the ecosystem—and by deferring large insider distributions—the launch design reduced the risk of a swift, broad-based sell-off that has affected other token launches in previous cycles.

Exchange coverage and liquidity profile

Widespread exchange listings on day one played a role in smoothing price moves. The availability of spot and derivatives markets across many venues provided traders with multiple avenues to express views and manage risk.

MEXC participated in the asset’s launch listings, contributing to cross-venue liquidity. This broader market access meant that large airdrop sales could be absorbed across order books, lowering the likelihood of severe single-market crashes.

Why deep liquidity matters

• Market makers can tighten spreads and provide continuous two-sided quotes.
• Derivatives allow hedging that avoids forcing additional spot sells when participants want to reduce directional exposure.
• Cross-exchange arbitrage encourages price alignment, limiting fragmentation-driven volatility.

On-chain activity: metrics that exceeded expectations

Monad’s early on-chain indicators showed unusually high engagement for a freshly launched layer-1 network. Within the first 24–48 hours, the chain registered activity levels that many projects aim to produce over much longer timelines.

• Transactions: approximately 3.7 million recorded.
• Active addresses: roughly 153,000 interacting with the chain.
• Contract deployments: in the tens of thousands as developers and automated strategies began testing and deploying contracts.
• Total Value Locked (TVL): near $90 million in initial protocols and liquidity pools.

Decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes were also notable, reflecting concentrated liquidity pools and early yield incentives that attracted trading and liquidity provisioning. This on-chain usage reinforced perceptions that Monad’s launch was functional and not merely speculative noise.

Market context in 2025: why MON stood out

The broader crypto market in 2025 experienced episodes of downward pressure, with major assets under stress and retail sentiment muted. In such an environment, tokens that demonstrate concrete early activity and credible distribution designs can capture relative-strength flows as traders look for opportunities outside the largest cap names.

MON’s combination of early utility signals, limited available float, and accessible trading venues positioned it as a relative-strength asset. Momentum capital and short-term traders rotated into MON, amplifying the move.

Risk factors and potential pressure points

Despite the promising opening, several structural risks could impede the rally as time progresses.

• Unlock schedule: As vesting tranches for insiders, investors and the treasury begin to unlock over coming months, circulating supply will rise, creating selling pressure even if those participants remain largely disciplined.
• High fully diluted valuation (FDV): With a substantial proportion of tokens time-locked, FDV sits in the multibillion-dollar range. Expectations for ecosystem growth must align with that valuation to avoid compression.
• Incentive tapering: Early yield programs and liquidity incentives that boosted TVL and DEX volume may normalize, reducing short-term demand drivers.
• Market-wide shocks: Broader negative macro or crypto-specific events could pull liquidity out of smaller market-cap tokens faster than large-cap assets.

Outlook horizons: short, medium, and long term

The trajectory for MON is best considered across three overlapping horizons that capture how supply, demand and fundamentals will interact.

Short term (days–weeks)

With early unlocks absorbed and liquidity available, momentum can persist. If on-chain usage and incentive programs continue to attract deposits and activity, MON may maintain elevated price levels for a number of weeks.

Medium term (months)

Gradual unlocks and the end of initial incentive periods are likely to introduce selling pressure. Market participants will watch whether TVL and active user metrics can remain stable or grow as incentives phase down. A slowdown in real activity could trigger volatility and price retracement.

Long term (year-plus)

Long-term resilience will hinge on fundamental execution: sustained developer engagement, meaningful application growth, and continual increases in economic activity measured by TVL, fees, and active users. If the ecosystem converts early interest into durable growth, valuation multiples could be justified; if not, FDV compression is a realistic outcome.

Key metrics and watchlist

Traders and investors should monitor the following indicators to assess MON’s sustainability:

• Weekly active addresses and transaction counts to gauge ongoing adoption.
• TVL trends across major dApps on Monad, particularly decentralized exchanges and lending protocols.
• Vesting and unlock calendar to anticipate supply-side pressure.
• Order book depth and cross-exchange liquidity, including MEXC listings and execution quality.
• Developer activity (new contract deployments and GitHub or public repo activity).

What to expect through 2025

Through 2025, markets are likely to remain selective. Tokens that combine verified utility, transparent tokenomics and accessible liquidity will continue to attract capital. MON’s early indicators are promising, but the chain must sustain development and real user growth beyond the initial incentive phase.

For participants seeking to engage with MON, disciplined position management is advisable. Short-term momentum can generate attractive returns but volatility around unlocks and incentive wind-downs can be significant.

Conclusion

Monad’s launch delivered a rare alignment of distribution design, early on-chain traction and cross-venue liquidity. Those elements helped MON outperform in a market otherwise under pressure.

In the immediate term, the rally can persist if on-chain demand, liquidity provision and incentive programs remain robust. Medium-term risks—chiefly unlock-related supply increases and the tapering of incentive rewards—introduce potential headwinds. Ultimately, MON’s long-term price trajectory will be determined by the network’s ability to translate early activity into sustained ecosystem growth through 2025 and beyond.

Market participants should continue to watch the indicators listed above and account for both the upside potential and the structural risks inherent in early-stage layer-1 token launches.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.