Three US Reports That Could Move Bitcoin

Overview: A critical macro week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin markets enter a sensitive stretch in late November 2025 as three key U.S. economic reports — retail sales, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and initial jobless claims — arrive in quick succession ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. After a prolonged government shutdown earlier in 2025 delayed several data releases, the concentrated flow of backlogged indicators increases the potential for sharp moves across risk assets, including crypto.

Investors have already priced in a meaningful probability of Federal Reserve easing by December 2025. Fresh data will be watched closely for signs of inflationary persistence or renewed labor-market strength that could shift rate-cut expectations and, in turn, affect Bitcoin (BTC) through dollar strength, risk sentiment and flows into crypto products.

Why these three reports matter for markets

The trio of releases provides a snapshot of consumption, wholesale inflation and employment — three pillars that the central bank monitors when setting policy. Because they arrive within a compressed window and before a major holiday, markets may react more quickly and with greater volatility than usual.

• Retail sales reflect consumer spending trends and can confirm or challenge views on demand-driven inflation.
• PPI signals wholesale inflation dynamics and often precedes consumer inflation measures that influence monetary policy.
• Initial jobless claims are the freshest weekly gauge of labor-market momentum and can rapidly alter rate-cut timelines.

Backlog increases policy sensitivity

Earlier in 2025, a government shutdown delayed routine reporting and created a backlog of data. The subsequent simultaneous release of several high-impact indicators compresses the information flow and heightens the influence of each print. Traders who were operating on stale signals must now quickly assimilate updated information, making BTC and other risk assets potentially more reactive to surprises.

Retail sales: the consumer pulse

Retail sales measure spending at the point of purchase and provide a near-term read on consumption. Consensus forecasts for the delayed September release were modestly positive; however, any notable deviation — either stronger or weaker — would carry implications for growth expectations and Fed policy.

Scenarios and implications:

• Weaker-than-expected retail sales could increase confidence in a December rate cut, weigh on the U.S. dollar and lift risk assets, potentially supporting Bitcoin.
• Stronger-than-expected spending would reinforce the narrative of resilient domestic demand, reduce the odds of imminent easing, strengthen the dollar and could pressure BTC, especially in the short term.

In 2025, Bitcoin has shown a stronger correlation with macro drivers, particularly monetary policy expectations. Spot flows into crypto investment products and derivative positioning have reacted to updates on growth and inflation, demonstrating how sensitive BTC has become to macro surprises.

PPI: the inflation check before PCE

The Producer Price Index is a leading indicator of inflation at the wholesale level. As the final significant inflation release before the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, PPI can materially influence market pricing of Fed moves.

Key considerations:

• Core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, receives particular attention because it signals underlying inflation pressures.
• A hotter-than-expected print could quickly reduce the probability of a December rate cut, boosting the dollar and challenging risk assets, including crypto.
• A softer-than-expected PPI would bolster a dovish view, potentially fueling BTC gains as liquidity conditions ease and the dollar weakens.

Traders will scrutinize month-over-month and year-over-year readings. In 2025, markets have become less tolerant of inflation upside, meaning even small surprises can trigger outsized adjustments to rate-cut probabilities and asset allocations.

Initial jobless claims: the weekly labor snapshot

Initial jobless claims provide a timely view of labor-market conditions. Although it is a high-frequency measure with weekly noise, a significant miss relative to expectations can influence Fed deliberations and market sentiment rapidly.

Why claims matter this week:

• Labor-market health remains central to the Fed’s policy calculus. A noticeable increase in claims could reinforce the case for easing.
• Especially with markets closing for Thanksgiving and trading hours shortened afterward, an unexpected spike or drop in claims may amplify volatility as liquidity thins.

For Bitcoin, employment weakness tends to be interpreted as a green light for rate cuts, which historically correlates with BTC rallies. Conversely, persistently low claims may dampen rate-cut odds and weigh on risk-on positioning.

Holiday timing and liquidity — a potent mix

The scheduling of these releases right before Thanksgiving introduces additional dynamics. U.S. markets will close on the holiday, and trading hours may be shortened the following day. Crypto markets operate 24/7, but lower participation from traditional liquidity providers during holidays can magnify price swings.

Consequences of condensed trading hours and thin liquidity:

• Price gaps or exaggerated intraday moves as markets absorb surprises with fewer counterparties.
• Increased significance of outflows and inflows into crypto investment products, which can magnify directional moves in BTC.
• Opportunities for volatility-based trading strategies, but also elevated risk of slippage and stop-outs for retail participants.

How these data could reprice December easing odds

Market-implied odds for a December 2025 rate cut have been substantial in 2025. The trio of reports can either cement that view or cause investors to revise it sharply.

Potential market pathways:

• All three prints align dovishly (soft retail sales, low PPI, rising claims): markets increase rate-cut probability, the dollar softens, and BTC could rally as liquidity chases risk.
• Mixed signals: for example, weak retail sales but strong PPI — markets may become fragmented, producing choppy price action in BTC as traders reposition.
• Data surprises to the upside (strong spending, elevated PPI, low claims): rate-cut odds fall, the dollar strengthens, and Bitcoin may face selling pressure, particularly from macro-sensitive flows.

Implications for crypto investors and traders

Given the higher correlation between macro expectations and crypto in 2025, traders should prepare for heightened volatility around the release window. Risk management and position sizing will be particularly important.

• Review leverage usage on derivatives; reduced liquidity can lead to faster liquidations.
• Consider staggered entry and exit plans rather than single-point orders during the holiday window.
• Monitor flows into spot and exchange-traded products, as large outflows or inflows can exacerbate moves in BTC.
• Keep an eye on real-time dollar strength indicators — FX moves often precede shifts in crypto sentiment.

MEXC market perspective and resources

MEXC’s market desk continues to monitor macro developments and liquidity conditions as they relate to crypto markets. Our research highlights that—with policy uncertainty and concentrated data releases—risk management becomes the priority for active traders and institutional participants alike.

For traders looking to hedge or capitalize on near-term volatility, MEXC offers a range of spot and derivatives instruments. Always ensure positions are sized to account for sudden liquidity gaps and verify margin and liquidation parameters before trading during thin market periods.

Looking ahead: post-Thanksgiving and year-end dynamics

Beyond the immediate data releases, the evolving macro picture in late 2025 will shape the trajectory for Bitcoin into year-end. Investors should watch:

• How policymakers interpret the sequence of late-2025 indicators when commenting on the path of rates.
• Flows into crypto investment products, which can amplify directional moves as participants rebalance portfolios.
• Volatility trends around low-liquidity market periods, which may persist into early December if economic surprises continue.

The combination of compressed data flow, holiday liquidity effects and an already heightened sensitivity of BTC to macro signals makes the coming days a consequential moment for crypto markets. Whether the reports validate expectations for easing or trigger a re-pricing of policy risk, traders and investors will need to act with discipline and clarity.

Final thoughts

Late-November 2025 presents a concentrated macro test for Bitcoin and broader risk assets. Retail sales, PPI and initial jobless claims together deliver a multi-dimensional snapshot of the economy that can move Fed expectations — and by extension, crypto markets — quickly.

Participants should prepare for amplified volatility, manage leverage carefully and be mindful of the thinner liquidity environment surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday. Staying informed and disciplined will be essential as markets digest these pivotal data points and reposition heading into December.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.