Pi Coin: Failed Breakout, Rally Still Intact

Pi Coin shows resilience after failed breakout attempt

Pi Coin (PI) continued to demonstrate relative strength amid a mixed crypto market in 2025, extending a multi-week advance despite a short-lived failed breakout. Traders and market analysts watching short-term momentum indicators see signs that the rally remains structurally intact, provided key technical and capital-flow supports hold.

Summary of the recent price action

Over the past month Pi Coin has outperformed several peers, posting double-digit gains from recent lows. The most notable technical event was a failed attempt to clear resistance near $0.229. Sellers reasserted control at that level, forcing a retracement, but price did not collapse — a signal many market participants interpret as constructive.

Short-term momentum tools, including moving averages on the 4-hour timeframe, are signaling a potential bullish shift. At the same time, daily indicators that measure buying versus selling pressure continue to favor bulls. These mixed-but-leaning-bullish conditions suggest the failed breakout is not necessarily the end of the month-long uptrend.

Technical setup: what traders are watching

Technically, the setup that matters most for near-term direction includes a 4-hour EMA crossover, daily bull-bear pressure readings, and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) for signposting institutional involvement.

4-hour EMA crossover

• The 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart is approaching the 50-period EMA. A clean crossover — with the 20 EMA crossing above the 50 EMA — would be considered a short-term momentum confirmation and often precedes renewed upside moves.
• An earlier attempt at this crossover failed when sellers stepped in near resistance. If bulls can hold current price ranges and allow the EMAs to complete the crossover, the probability of another push toward resistance increases.

Daily bull-bear power

Daily measures that compare buying pressure against selling pressure have shifted toward buyers in recent sessions. That reading helps explain why the price did not undergo a deep sell-off after the breakout rejection. Sustained bullish readings on this indicator would reinforce the view that bulls remain in control on a medium-term basis.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

CMF gauges whether big holders are adding or removing capital. The CMF briefly dipped during the failed breakout, indicating a short-lived withdrawal of buying interest. However, it remains near a rising trendline rather than plunging below it — a distinction that matters. As long as CMF remains above its trendline and moves back toward zero, the argument for renewed inflows and higher prices holds.

Key price levels and scenarios

Price action around specific levels will likely determine whether the rally continues or retreats. Traders and risk managers should monitor the following targets and potential outcomes:

• Immediate resistance: $0.229 — repeated rejections here have capped near-term rallies. A daily close above $0.229 would be a constructive sign.
• Next resistances: $0.236 then $0.266 — clearing these zones could open the path to more robust gains and attract additional momentum-driven flows.
• Support to watch: $0.201 — should CMF break below its rising trendline or if selling intensifies, this level could be tested on a deeper retracement.

In a bullish scenario where the EMA crossover completes and CMF turns upward, Pi Coin needs a modest move — historically less than 1% from current levels — to reassert control and attempt to close above $0.229. Conversely, a sustained CMF decline or a breakdown below $0.201 would tilt risk in favor of sellers and invalidate the short-term recovery thesis.

Why capital flows matter in 2025

In 2025, the crypto landscape has continued to evolve: institutional interest remains selective, liquidity conditions are uneven across tokens, and macroeconomic forces shape risk appetite. For smaller-cap and community-oriented tokens, large-wallet behavior can be especially influential.

Chaikin Money Flow and other on-chain flow metrics have become standard tools for assessing whether big holders are accumulating or distributing. For Pi Coin, positive CMF readings suggest that larger participants are not aggressively exiting, which supports the continuation of the rally even after failed breakout attempts.

Macro and market context

• Macro stability in 2025 has helped digital-asset markets regain some investor confidence after prior volatility, but liquidity is still concentrated in major tokens.
• Periodic rotations between blue-chip assets and select altcoins are common; momentum-driven altcoin rallies often rely on renewed retail interest and sporadic institutional flows.
• Regulatory clarity in several jurisdictions in 2025 has reduced some systemic risks, but idiosyncratic token dynamics remain the main price drivers for mid- and small-cap assets.

Trading considerations and risk management

Given the current setup, traders should balance the bullish technical evidence with contingency planning. The following considerations may help manage exposure:

• Confirmations: Wait for a daily close above $0.229 or completion of the 4-hour EMA crossover before increasing long exposure. A confirmed CMF uptick strengthens the signal.
• Position sizing: Use conservative sizing because failed breakouts can trigger fast moves in either direction for lower-liquidity tokens.
• Stops and targets: Consider placing stops below $0.201 if taking a bullish position, and scale targets around $0.236 and $0.266 to lock in gains.
• Monitor volume: Breakouts that occur on expanding volume and improving CMF are more likely to sustain than those on thin liquidity.

What traders and investors should watch next

Key near-term indicators and events that will shape Pi Coin’s path include:

• The 4-hour EMA crossover and whether it completes cleanly.
• Daily bull-bear power readings staying in bullish territory.
• CMF maintaining its rising trendline and moving back toward the zero line.
• Price action at $0.229 — a decisive daily close above or rejection here will set the next leg.

Additionally, watch broader market signals: Bitcoin’s price behavior, sector rotations into altcoins, and any macro headlines that affect risk-on sentiment. In 2025, these external factors continue to amplify price moves across smaller tokens, making them relevant even for projects with strong community backing.

Outlook: rally intact but not guaranteed

Pi Coin’s recent failed breakout is best viewed as a warning sign rather than a definitive trend reversal. The balance of evidence — short-term EMA setup, daily bull-bear pressure, and money-flow metrics — still favors a continuation of the rally if capital inflows reassert themselves and the token can clear $0.229 on a sustained basis.

Traders should remain attentive to the evolving technical picture and to 2025 market dynamics that influence liquidity and risk appetite. With prudent risk management and a focus on confirmatory signals, market participants can navigate the next phase of price discovery for Pi Coin.

Final note

As always in volatile markets, scenarios can change quickly. Combining technical confirmations with flow-based indicators provides a more complete read of whether a failed breakout is a temporary setback or the start of a deeper correction. For now, Pi Coin’s month-long advance appears to have life left in it, but traders should prepare for both outcomes.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
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