Bitcoin shattered the psychological $100,000 support level, plunging to $97,000-$98,000 and triggering panic across crypto markets. Ethereum crashed 6%, most major sectors declined 2-7%, and social media filled with predictions of further downside. Yet beneath the surface chaos, a different story unfolded: institutional investors moved $405 million in Bitcoin to Anchorage Digital custody in just 9 hours, with transfers originating from Coinbase, Cumberland DRW, Galaxy Digital, and Wintermute.
This disconnect between retail fear and institutional accumulation creates one of 2025’s most compelling contrarian setups. When smart money buys while the crowd panics, history suggests major reversals follow. Understanding why Bitcoin crashed, who’s buying at these levels, and what technical signals reveal about the next move could determine whether you capture the rebound or miss it entirely.
What Happened: Bitcoin’s Break Below $100K
The Decline:
Bitcoin’s crash unfolded over 48 hours:
- November 12: BTC rejected from $107,000-$108,000 resistance
- November 13: Breakdown accelerated, testing $100,000 support
- November 14: Support failed, BTC plunged to $97,000-$98,000 intraday low
- Current status: Trading between $97K-$98K, down ~9% from rejection zone
Market-Wide Impact:
- Ethereum (ETH): -6% decline
- Most crypto sectors: -2% to -7% losses
- Fear & Greed Index: Likely below 30 (extreme fear)
- Liquidations: Estimated $500M+ in long positions wiped out
Technical Breakdown:
Bitcoin broke critical support levels:
- $100,000 psychological support: Failed after multiple tests
- 0.5 Fibonacci retracement: Currently testing this key level
- Weekly close risk: If BTC closes below $99K this week, fresh bearish structure forms
The speed and magnitude of the breakdown suggests forced selling (liquidations, stop-losses triggered) rather than organic distribution, creating conditions where institutional buyers can accumulate at favorable prices.
The $405M Institutional Accumulation: Who’s Buying?
While retail investors panic-sold, institutional buyers moved aggressively. On-chain data reveals Anchorage Digital (a leading institutional crypto custodian) received 4,094 BTC worth $405 million in just 9 hours on November 14.
Source of Transfers:
The Bitcoin came from four major institutional entities:
- Coinbase (largest U.S. exchange, institutional custody leader)
- Cumberland DRW (market maker and liquidity provider)
- Galaxy Digital (Mike Novogratz’s crypto merchant bank)
- Wintermute (algorithmic market maker)
Why This Matters:
These aren’t retail traders,they’re institutional players managing billions in assets. Their simultaneous transfers to Anchorage custody suggest:
Interpretation 1: Long-Term Accumulation
Moving Bitcoin to custody (rather than keeping on exchanges) signals holding for months or years, not trading. Institutions don’t pay custody fees for short-term speculation.
Interpretation 2: Coordinated Buying
Four major institutions moving funds simultaneously suggests coordination or shared conviction that $97K-$100K represents strategic entry point.
Interpretation 3: Front-Running Institutional Flows
Sygnum Bank survey (released November 14) shows 61% of institutional investors plan to increase crypto allocations before year-end. These early movers may be front-running wave of institutional capital incoming Q4 2025.
Historical Context:
Similar institutional accumulation during crashes preceded major rallies:
- May 2021: Institutions bought $1B+ during crash from $64K to $30K → BTC recovered to $69K
- June 2022: Accumulation at $17K-$20K → BTC rallied to $73K (+265%)
- August 2024: Buying during flash crash to $49K → BTC recovered to $108K
Current $405M accumulation at $97K-$100K could precede similar recovery if patterns hold.
Why Did Bitcoin Crash? Three Key Catalysts
Technical Rejection at $107K-$108K
Bitcoin attempted to break above $107K-$108K resistance multiple times in early November but failed each attempt. This resistance zone represents:
- September-October highs where profit-taking occurred
- Psychological barrier before ATH attempt
- Heavy supply from holders who bought $100K-$108K and want breakeven exits
Failed breakouts often trigger sharp reversals as momentum traders exit and shorts pile on.
Overleveraged Long Positions Liquidated
Open interest in Bitcoin futures reached near-cycle highs before the crash, indicating extreme leverage in the system. When BTC broke below $100K:
- Long stop-losses triggered en masse
- Forced liquidations created cascading selling
- $500M+ in long positions wiped out, amplifying downward pressure
This is classic “leverage flush”—overleveraged positions get cleared, creating cleaner market structure for subsequent rallies.
Macro Uncertainty and Risk-Off Sentiment
Broader financial markets faced headwinds:
- U.S. government shutdown hitting day 36 (longest in history)
- Crypto regulation delayed, creating uncertainty
- Risk-off sentiment across equities and tech stocks
When traditional markets wobble, crypto—as a risk asset—typically sells off harder. Bitcoin’s 9% decline reflects this correlation.
Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Critical Support: $95,000-$97,000
This zone represents:
- 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from recent swing low to high
- Psychological round number ($95K)
- Previous consolidation area from September 2025
If BTC holds above $95K, the crash is likely just a correction within the bull market. Break below $95K decisively suggests deeper correction toward $88K-$90K.
Immediate Resistance: $100,000-$102,000
Reclaiming $100K would flip psychology from bearish to cautiously bullish. This level now acts as resistance after breaking down as support. A strong close above $102K would confirm failed breakdown and signal reversal.
Major Resistance: $107,000-$108,000
The zone where BTC was rejected multiple times. Breaking above this level would invalidate bearish thesis entirely and open path toward ATH ($126,210) retest.
Downside Targets (If Weakness Continues):
- First target: $95,000 (current test zone)
- Second target: $88,000-$90,000 (major support confluence)
- Worst case: $80,000-$82,000 (September lows, unlikely but possible)
Why Institutions Are Buying: The Bull Case
Despite the crash, institutional conviction remains high. Here’s why smart money is accumulating:
Sygnum Survey Shows 61% Plan to Increase Allocations
Sygnum Bank’s November 14 survey of institutional investors revealed:
- 61% plan to ramp up crypto purchases by year-end
- 39% of allocations will go to Bitcoin
- 28% targeting Ethereum
- 33% exploring altcoins and DeFi
This survey data suggests institutional buying pressure will accelerate into Q4 2025, creating demand that can absorb current selling.
Bitcoin ETF AUM Near $139B
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management sit near $139 billion despite recent outflows. This represents structural demand that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Even if ETFs see temporary outflows, the infrastructure for institutional access is now permanent.
Federal Reserve Policy Supportive
Fed ending quantitative tightening December 1 creates improved liquidity conditions. Combined with potential rate cuts in 2026, macro backdrop favors risk assets like Bitcoin over 6-12 month horizon.
Technical Oversold Conditions
Multiple indicators flash oversold:
- RSI likely below 30 (extreme oversold)
- Bitcoin below 200-day moving average (historically strong buy signal)
- Fear & Greed Index in extreme fear (contrarian buy zone)
Institutions often buy when technicals are maximally oversold, not when momentum is positive.
Historical Precedent
Every major bull market includes 10-20% corrections that shake out weak hands. Current 9% drop from $108K to $97K is normal volatility, not trend reversal. Institutions buying these dips have historically been rewarded.
Risks: What Could Invalidate the Bullish Case
Weekly Close Below $99K
If Bitcoin closes the week (Sunday) below $99,000, it confirms bearish structure and likely triggers further downside toward $88K-$90K. This is the most critical near-term risk.
Institutional Buying Fails to Sustain
If the $405M accumulation is one-time event (not sustained), price may continue drifting lower without sufficient demand to absorb selling.
Macro Shock
Unexpected recession, geopolitical crisis, or Fed policy surprise could override institutional buying and drive Bitcoin materially lower.
Miner Capitulation
If Bitcoin miners begin selling reserves due to profitability pressure (mining costs ~$60K-$70K per BTC), it adds supply pressure that can extend corrections.
How to Trade This Crash
For Aggressive Traders:
- Enter small positions at current levels ($97K-$98K)
- Add on bounce back above $100K (confirms support)
- Use stop-losses below $94K
- Target profits at $102K (+5%), $107K (+10%), $115K (+18%)
For Conservative Traders:
- Wait for weekly close above $100K before entering
- Enter on pullbacks to $98K-$99K support
- Use 2-3% portfolio allocation
- Target $108K-$110K (+12-15%)
For Long-Term Investors:
- Dollar-cost average over next 2-4 weeks
- Current levels represent accumulation zone if you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory
- Focus on 12-24 month horizon, ignore short-term volatility
- Consider institutional buyers are doing exactly this
Risk Management:
- Never allocate >5% to leveraged positions
- Monitor weekly close—below $99K invalidates thesis
- Use MEXC Futures with proper position sizing
The Bottom Line: Fear Creates Opportunity
Bitcoin’s crash below $100K to $97K-$98K triggered panic selling and $500M+ in liquidations—exactly the conditions where institutional buyers accumulate. The $405 million moved to Anchorage custody from Coinbase, Cumberland, Galaxy, and Wintermute demonstrates that smart money is positioning while retail capitulates.
Combined with Sygnum survey showing 61% of institutions plan to increase allocations by year-end, $139B in ETF assets providing structural support, and technical oversold conditions, the setup favors buyers over sellers at current levels. Historical precedent shows similar institutional accumulation during crashes preceded 100-200% rallies within 6-12 months.
The key risk: weekly close below $99K would confirm bearish structure and likely trigger deeper correction toward $88K-$90K. But if Bitcoin holds $95K-$97K support and reclaims $100K, this crash may be remembered as the last major buying opportunity before year-end rally toward $120K-$130K.
The question isn’t whether institutions are buying—on-chain data proves they are. The question is whether you’ll follow smart money or fight it.
Disclaimer: This material does not constitute advice on investments, taxes, legal matters, finance, accounting, consulting, or any other related services, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. MEXC Learn provides information for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and invest cautiously. All investment decisions and outcomes are the sole responsibility of the user.
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