Bitcoin Weekly Crossroads: What Traders Should Watch in 2025

Overview

Bitcoin is at a pivotal technical junction that could define the next phase of the multi-year cycle. After a period of volatility in 2024 and early 2025 — driven by macro developments, continued institutional adoption, and shifting liquidity conditions — market attention has turned to several long-term moving averages that historically act as cycle-defining levels.

This article explains the critical technical indicators, outlines plausible scenarios for price action, and provides practical guidance for traders and investors navigating the months ahead.

Why weekly moving averages matter

Weekly moving averages smooth out noise and highlight structural trend changes. For Bitcoin, two weekly SMAs (simple moving averages) receive outsized attention:

• 50-week SMA: Often marks the transition between a bullish cycle and a transitional top. Weekly closes relative to this level are used to assess whether the market retains cyclical momentum.
• 200-week SMA: Historically acts as the long-term accumulation band that price revisits around the midpoint of a multi-year cycle.

In addition, crossovers on moving averages at shorter timeframes — such as the 50-day vs 200-day (a so-called “death cross”) — can signal a shift from uptrend to extended corrective phases. In 2025, market participants are watching for confirmation from weekly candles rather than intraday volatility.

Technical context heading into mid-2025

Key observations relevant to the current market:

• Weekly price action near the 50-week SMA is the immediate focus. A decisive weekly close below this level increases the probability that the cycle top may already be in.
• The 50-day/200-day death cross in prior months has raised the odds of a protracted correction, especially if weekly declining momentum is confirmed by volume and open interest.
• Historical cycle behavior suggests that when a macro top is reached, Bitcoin can still produce one final lower high that approaches a mid-term moving average (for example the 200-day SMA) before a deeper decline.

Scenario analysis: What could happen next

We outline three plausible scenarios that reflect different outcomes based on weekly price behavior and macro conditions.

Scenario A — Bullish recovery (base case if bulls regain the 50W SMA)

If Bitcoin reclaims and closes above the 50-week SMA within the next few weeks, the outlook shifts back toward a constructive cycle continuation. Key features of this scenario:

• Market confidence improves as weekly momentum indicators turn positive.
• Institutional flows and spot ETF participation (as seen across 2024–2025) can support price upside.
• Short-to-medium term targets become higher moving averages and structural resistance zones; volatility may remain elevated but with a bullish bias.

Traders should look for strong weekly closes above the 50W SMA accompanied by rising volume and tightening derivatives funding rates.

Scenario B — Transitional top confirmed (if weekly closes stay below 50W SMA)

If Bitcoin fails to recover and consecutive weekly closes remain below the 50-week SMA, probability increases that the cycle top has passed. Characteristics of this scenario include:

• An elevated chance of a “last leg” rally toward the 200-day SMA producing a lower high.
• Higher likelihood of a multi-month corrective phase with choppy lows and periodic relief rallies.
• A mid-term retest toward longer-term accumulation bands, historically centered around the 200-week SMA.

Under this path, some models and historical cycles indicate a possible mid-cycle revisit to price ranges often cited by valuation frameworks — commonly discussed in the $60,000–$70,000 band for a 200-week SMA retest in the mid-to-late cycle of the next year or two. Timing and magnitude will depend on macro forces, liquidity, and investor behavior in 2025–2026.

Scenario C — Rapid decline into deeper correction

Less likely but possible is a sharper drawdown if macro risks materialize alongside technical breakdowns. This can be precipitated by:

• Sudden withdrawals of institutional liquidity or large-scale deleveraging in derivatives markets.
• Adverse regulatory developments or macro shocks that force risk-off flows.
• Persistent failure to recover above weekly moving averages, leading to capitulation-type selling.

In that outcome, price may accelerate lower toward stronger historical support zones. Risk management and hedging become paramount for leveraged participants.

Market drivers to watch in 2025

The technical picture is only one side of the story. Several market-level drivers will influence which scenario plays out:

• Macro liquidity and rates: Central bank guidance and rate moves in 2025 will remain critical. Any shift toward easing typically supports risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• Institutional flows: ETF inflows, custody adoption, and corporate treasury allocations can add structural demand. Monitoring inflow trends provides insight into sustained demand vs. short-term speculation.
• On-chain indicators: Miner selling, exchange balances, and long-term holder accumulation offer clues about supply-side pressure.
• Derivatives and leverage: Funding rates, open interest, and option skew can amplify moves. High leverage increases the risk of cascading liquidations during sharp price moves.
• Regulatory clarity: Ongoing regulatory developments in major markets remain a headline risk and can affect sentiment and product development.

Practical guidance for traders and investors

Given the range of outcomes, a disciplined approach is essential. Below are practical, neutral strategies aligned to different investor profiles:

For short-term traders

• Focus on weekly closes and volume confirmation before assuming trend direction.
• Use stop-loss orders and manage position sizes to limit downside during periods of elevated volatility.
• Watch derivatives markets for signs of overcrowding (extreme funding rates or open interest spikes).

For medium- to long-term investors

• Consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risk if you believe in long-term adoption and scarcity dynamics.
• Use allocation limits within a diversified portfolio to avoid concentration risk.
• Monitor macro trends — rate easing and renewed liquidity in 2025 could present better entry points into longer-term accumulation bands.

Risk-management checklist

• Define clear scenario-based entry and exit rules.
• Set maximum allocation percentages for speculative positions.
• Use hedging tools where appropriate (options, inverse products) to protect downside exposure.

Interpreting probability and uncertainty

Probability estimates are inherently uncertain. Weekly closes and market structure shifts can change the outlook quickly. Rather than relying on single data points, combine multiple confirmations:

• Price relative to weekly SMAs (50W and 200W).
• Momentum indicators on the weekly timeframe.
• Volume and on-chain flows.
• Macro headlines that affect liquidity and risk appetite.

Using a layered approach reduces the chance of being misled by short-lived price noise.

What a mid-cycle retest could mean

Historically, Bitcoin’s mid-cycle can lead to retests of long-term moving averages that provide buying opportunities for long-term holders. If a retest of the 200-week SMA occurs in 2026 as some cycle models project, that would likely be a multi-month process involving volatility and periodic rebounds — not a single linear drop.

For investors planning across a multi-year horizon, such levels have served as accumulation zones in past cycles, though there is never a guarantee that history repeats exactly.

Conclusion

As we progress through 2025, weekly moving averages — especially the 50-week and 200-week SMAs — will remain important reference points for assessing Bitcoin’s macro cycle. A decisive weekly close below the 50W SMA raises the probability that the cycle top has passed and increases the chance of a drawn-out correction. Conversely, reclaiming that level within a short window would restore a more balanced outlook.

Combine technical signals with macro context, on-chain data, and risk-management discipline. Whether you are an active trader or a long-term investor, preparing for multiple scenarios and keeping position sizes appropriate to your risk tolerance will be essential in the months ahead.

Next steps for readers

• Monitor weekly candle closes relative to the 50W SMA.
• Track institutional flow and macro rate signals as they unfold through 2025.
• Review and update risk limits in line with evolving market structure.

Staying informed and systematic will help navigate the crossroads ahead.

Disclaimer: This post is a compilation of publicly available information.
MEXC does not verify or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content.
Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or participation decisions.