Four months after last season’s finale, the Champions League is back. Eighteen league-phase games were packed into one 72-hour period this week, with nine of them involving a Fan Token® club.
Europe’s premier club competition has long acted as a lodestone for SportFi traders, with activity typically centering around key games backed by strong market narratives. So, what caught the eye on matchday one?
Read on to find out which clashes carried extra weight, how the Fan Token® market responded, and what comes next.
Napoli Fan Token® Climbs 18% Despite Defeat
One of the most interesting stories from the midweek UCL games relates to Napoli v Arsenal. The English champions travelled to Naples as big favourites, and duly justified that tag by winning, albeit by a modest 1-0 scoreline, on Wednesday evening (Sept. 9).
Interestingly, though, the Napoli Fan Token® ($NAP) outperformed Arsenal’s own digital asset. Priced at $0.194 on the morning of the match, $NAP had risen to $0.229 by noon the next day (+18%). 24hr trade volume also jumped by a whopping 1,900%!
The Arsenal Fan Token® ($AFC), by comparison, traded within an extremely tight range, the narrow victory providing no discernible boost. Why?
There are a few possible reasons: anticipatory interest that snowballed once traders boarded the bandwagon in expectation of an upset; $NAP’s comparatively low cap making it more prone to sharp price movements once activity jumped. As well as a general repricing of the asset post-summer ($NAP has gained 28% in the last quarter).
Whatever the explanation, $NAP’s performance post-defeat proves that football results are just one catalyst of Fan Token® sentiment. Sometimes, an influx of trading will move the needle regardless of what the scoreline shows.
Why Muted Market Reaction Greeted Wins for $PSG, $BAR
Like Arsenal, holders Paris Saint-Germain and La Liga rulers Barcelona enjoyed eye-catching wins this week. While PSG thumped outmatched Slovan Bratislava 6-1 in Paris, Barcelona moved through the gears to dismiss Feyenoord 5-1 at Camp Nou.
As with Arsenal, the victories did not cause either token to appreciate – at least in the short term. Both assets tracked sideways in the aftermath, and it would be difficult for an observer, viewing the charts, to pinpoint when – or even if – a match had taken place.
In the case of the Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token® ($PSG), however, that changed a day later (Sept. 10), when its price jumped from $0.468 to $0.527 in one hour (+12.6%). Just as quickly as it had taken off, the asset lost steam and crashed back to its previous level.
Can we attribute this rise to the UCL win over Slovan? Not really. On the day of the game, volumes barely cracked $1M. The following afternoon, they’d blown past $4M amid heightened market activity. The smart ones cashed out after pocketing 12% profit. The rest blinked and missed the rally.
The spot price of the Barcelona Fan Token® ($BAR), incidentally, has declined in recent days, with the current value representing a possible re-entry point ahead of three La Liga fixtures before the end of September. With Real Madrid having lost to Real Betis last week, Barça have already opened up a three-point gap over their rivals after just four games.
It’s natural to wonder why, despite their emphatic UCL wins, neither Barcelona nor Paris Saint-Germain could inspire SportFi traders. However, their status as heavy favourites must be taken into account here. Markets tend to react to volatility and uncertainty: it could simply be the case that the wins were already priced in.
How Anticipation, Not Results, Drove Gains for $CITY and $INTER
Manchester City and Inter Milan had mixed fortunes on Tuesday night, with Inter losing 2-1 to Real Madrid in the Spanish capital and City defeating Porto 2-0 in Portugal.
Three years ago, City and Inter faced off in the Champions League final, with the English team winning 1-0 to capture their first-ever UCL trophy. Although both remain giants of European football, many pundits view them as operating a rung below the likes of Barça, Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal.
In any case, another quirk of the SportFi market was exhibited ahead of their games this week: anticipation and excitement led to gains, not results. The Inter Milan Fan Token® ($INTER), for example, rose from $0.205 to $0.211 (+2.8%) in the days before the clash, before the gains were wiped out by the defeat.
It was a similar story for the Manchester City Fan Token® ($CITY): its price steadily rose in the days before the Porto game, climbing from $0.360 on Sept. 3 to $0.371 by the time of the first whistle (+3%). Despite the comfortable 2-0 victory, resistance in the market proved stubborn and $CITY sentiment soon cooled.
What do these examples tell us? Well, evidently anticipation can lead to steady gains. But oftentimes the hype cools before the game has even begun; defeat can precipitate a sharp drop, while even a win can fail to maintain momentum. Plugging oneself into the market and paying close attention minute-by-minute can pay dividends. Sporting success is but a single driver of on-chain sentiment.
Which Other Tokens Won and Lost This Week?
Atlético Madrid ($ATM) and Galatasaray ($GAL) were also in action this week, though their UCL campaigns got off to an ignominious start after defeats to Liverpool (2-1) and Sporting CP (3-1). Perhaps because these were away games, the market did not punish their Fan Tokens too severely.
Indeed, $ATM experienced the same phenomenon as $PSG a day after the Liverpool loss, its price surging from $1.15 to $1.25 (+8.6%) in the early afternoon of September 10. The token soon lost momentum, but even after shedding most of its gains, its price settled 1% higher than it had been the day before.
With a month to go until the next round of UCL games, each of the aforementioned clubs will be refocusing on league duties, and there are plenty of competing narratives with the potential to pump or tank tokens. Can Arsenal hold off a resurgent Manchester City? Will Napoli set aside early-season setbacks to challenge at the Serie A summit? Are PSG battling fatigue amid anaemic domestic form? Will Atlético win the Madrid derby later this month?
In a market that never sleeps, make sure the coffee pot stays warm. We’ll see you in the next update.
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