In what is set to be their last appearances in a World Cup, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo may yet meet on the pitch, providing their nations make it all the way to the final on July 19.
Holders Argentina have made serene progress in the tournament so far, winning all three group games to ease into the round-of-32. Portugal, meanwhile, went through the group stage unbeaten – albeit with two draws – and are in the tougher half of the draw.
With both nations boasting MEXC-listed Fan Tokens™, and each subject to a 1% burn of treasury reserves after every tournament win, the stage is set for what could end up being an epic showdown. To make it happen, though, Argentina and Portugal must win their next four games.
Let’s take a look at the story so far and their respective routes to the final.
Groups End, Knockouts Begin as Fan Tokens™ Burn
In our last SportFi update, we were two-thirds of the way through the group stage and focused on the goalscoring exploits of the aforementioned generational greats, Messi having scored a brace against Austria and Ronaldo netting twice against Uzbekistan.
After each match, the spot price of $ARG and $POR climbed, a likely consequence not just of the emphatic victories but the fact that they had triggered a 1% burn of each token’s treasury reserves.
While the value of $ARG popped 12.4% after their comfortable 2-0 win over Austria, Portugal’s 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan helped $POR shoot up 14.8%.
Argentina and Portugal’s final group games were against Jordan and Colombia respectively (June 28). While Messi once again scored as Argentina won 3-1 to top Group J, Portugal struggled to get going in a 0-0 draw with Colombia, which meant they finished second in Group K.
Having triggered three consecutive burns of the Argentine Football Association Fan Token™ ($ARG), La Albiceleste’s performances have nurtured belief that they could defend the title they won in 2022. Wins over Algeria, Austria, and Jordan have caused 39,877 $ARG to be destroyed, increasing the scarcity of the token and reducing sell pressure.
Portugal’s demolition of Uzbekistan on June 23, meanwhile, had sparked a burn of 69,656 Portugal Fan Tokens™ ($POR).
The subsequent stalemate with Colombia, however, meant that the latter was subsequently scheduled to meet Argentina in the quarterfinals rather than Portugal, assuming both teams get that far. Portugal’s route to the final is challenging, as they must potentially beat the likes of Spain, Belgium, and France.
What’s Next for $ARG and $POR?
This Friday (July 3), Argentina and Portugal return to action in their first knockout games, with the former facing Croatia and the latter meeting Cape Verde.
Prediction markets suggest Portugal have a 55% chance of beating Croatia in 90 minutes, with Croatia’s chances rated at just 20% and a draw 28%. Argentina has a 85% chance of beating Cape Verde, whose win prospects are <5%.
Might SportFi traders attempt to front-run the supply shocks triggered by victory in each case? The burn rate has risen since the group phase, with 2% of treasury holdings set to burn after a round-of-32 win.
If both nations can navigate these games, Argentina will meet Switzerland, Colombia, Ghana, or Algeria in the last-16 and Portugal are likely to take on current European champions Spain. The burn rate will rise to 2.5% for these fixtures.
The quarterfinals and semifinals carry burn rates of 5% and 7.5% respectively. Portugal have the much trickier draw: after beating Spain they would probably need to overcome Belgium, then France. Argentina would likely face Colombia then Brazil.
Make no mistake, lots of things need to happen for the dream final between Portugal and Argentina to materialize. Portugal must defeat reigning European champions Spain (whom they beat on penalties in last year’s UEFA Nations League Finals) as well as FIFA’s number one ranked team, France. Argentina probably have to see off Brazil, who are managed by five-time Champions League winner Carlo Ancelotti.
The exciting thing is, with the knockout phase now underway, and with over 1.1M national team Fan Tokens™ having already burned due to on-pitch results, the intensity is increasing.
Traders who can time their entry and exit points perfectly will be the winners as football’s Game of Thrones unfolds.
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