ELF stock is trading at $80.42 — we rate it a Buy with a $114.25 average price target, implying 42% upside as analysts model 39.5% annualised EPS growth for e.l.f. Beauty. The ELF stock price has whipsawed between $48 and $146 over the past twelve months, and with 12 Buy ratings against zero Sell calls, the ELF stock price analysis comes down to whether the Rhode acquisition and international expansion can reignite the growth story that made ELF a consumer-staple darling.
Key ELF Stock Data — April 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $80.42 |
| 52-Week Range | $48.10 – $146.26 |
| Market Cap | $4.6B |
| P/E Ratio (Fwd) | 27x |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.97 |
| Analyst Consensus | Buy (12 Buy / 4 Hold / 0 Sell) |
| Average Price Target | $114.25 (+42%) |
| High / Low Target | $136.00 / $85.00 |
| EPS Growth (Fwd) | 39.5% p.a. |
Table of Contents
- Key ELF Stock Data — April 2026
- What Is e.l.f. Beauty and Why Does ELF Stock Matter?
- ELF Stock Recent Performance: From $146 Peak to $80
- ELF Stock Valuation Analysis: 27x Forward P/E
- Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions on e.l.f. Beauty
- ELF Stock Forecast 2026: Analyst Targets
- ELF Stock Competitive Landscape: Outrunning Private Label
- ELF Stock Short Interest and Institutional Ownership
- Bottom Line on ELF Stock Forecast 2026
- ELF Stock Forecast 2026 FAQs
What Is e.l.f. Beauty and Why Does ELF Stock Matter?
e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) is a mass-market cosmetics company that has disrupted the colour-cosmetics category over the past five years by combining $6 price points with social-first marketing. The Oakland-based company sells lipstick, foundation, mascara, and skincare under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Well People, Keys Soulcare, Naturium, and — following the 2025 acquisition — Rhode brands. Distribution runs through Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty, Amazon, and a growing direct-to-consumer channel that generated 17% of fiscal-2026 revenue.
The reason ELF stock matters for small-cap consumer investors: it is one of the very few mass-prestige brands to grow US market share in twenty consecutive quarters through early 2025. Retail-tracker Nielsen data shows e.l.f. overtook Maybelline and L’Oréal Paris as the number-one colour-cosmetics brand in US mass channels in 2024. At the current ELF stock price of $80.42, the company trades at 27 times forward earnings — a material discount to where it traded during the 2024 run to $219, but still a premium to consumer-staples peers such as Ulta Beauty stock price at 15x forward earnings.
ELF Stock Recent Performance: From $146 Peak to $80
ELF stock has endured a punishing two-year drawdown. Shares peaked above $219 in March 2024 on momentum from 77% revenue growth and the Naturium acquisition, then spent the next eighteen months grinding lower as quarterly revenue growth decelerated from the 70% range into the 20% range. The 52-week range of $48.10 to $146.26 captures most of that compression. The 2025 lows near $48 came on a Q4 guidance cut that highlighted softening US mass-channel demand and tariff-related margin pressure; the rebound to $80.42 reflects a post-Rhode-acquisition reset, with management guiding to mid-teens organic revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 50 to 100 basis points.
The 30-day move has been choppy but net positive, with ELF stock adding roughly 12% from mid-March as investors began pricing in the first post-acquisition quarter. Short interest has come down from a peak above 22% to around 14% of float — still elevated, but no longer a crash-scenario setup.
ELF Stock Valuation Analysis: 27x Forward P/E
The ELF stock valuation case is built on one question: can e.l.f. sustain 20%+ top-line growth while expanding gross margin? The 27x forward P/E is not cheap in absolute terms, but it is the lowest multiple ELF has traded at since its 2016 IPO. Consensus models forecast revenue of $1.55B in fiscal 2026 and $1.82B in fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS climbing from $2.97 to roughly $3.80.
| Valuation Metric | ELF | ULTA | Consumer Staples Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 27x | 15x | 19x |
| EV/Sales | 3.1x | 1.4x | 1.8x |
| EV/EBITDA | 16x | 9x | 12x |
| Revenue Growth (Fwd) | 18% | 3% | 4% |
| Gross Margin | 71% | 39% | 42% |
The premium is still earned on gross margin alone — e.l.f.’s 71% gross margin is roughly double the consumer-staples average and materially above peers such as Target stock price‘s private-label beauty business. Applying a 30x multiple — historical average when growth is running north of 20% — to FY27 consensus EPS of $3.80 would put fair value at $114, precisely in line with the Wall Street median target.
Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions on e.l.f. Beauty
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Rhode acquisition adds a premium-priced Gen-Z skincare brand with 80%+ gross margin | Deceleration from 70% revenue growth to 18% is not fully priced into the 27x multiple |
| International revenue (<20% of mix) growing 60% year-on-year; white space in UK, Canada, Mexico | US mass-channel shelf space is close to saturated at Target and Walmart |
| Gross margin of 71% is best-in-class in mass beauty and rising | Tariff exposure on China-sourced packaging adds 150-200 bps of COGS pressure |
| 12 Buy ratings versus zero Sell ratings; 39.5% annualised EPS growth forecast | Competition from Rare Beauty, Milk Makeup, and Haus Labs intensifying in TikTok-driven categories |
| Short interest down from 22% to 14% as operating momentum re-accelerates | Margin-accretive SKU mix reliant on discretionary beauty demand; macro risk in a consumer-slowdown tape |
The analytical case that keeps ELF stock on analyst Buy lists is margin leverage. Consumer-staples brands with 70% gross margin and a double-digit growth runway are rare — Estée Lauder sits at 71% gross margin on 1% growth, Coty at 64% on 5% growth. ELF’s growth premium is defensible as long as international expansion delivers. The bear case is that once domestic growth sub-20%, the stock loses its narrative and compresses toward consumer-staples multiples near 18x — implying roughly $68 per share.
ELF Stock Forecast 2026: Analyst Targets
The ELF stock forecast 2026 consensus among 23 covering analysts sits at a median price target of $118.00, with a mean of $114.25 — both implying roughly 42-47% upside from $80.42. Dispersion is tight relative to small-cap consumer stocks, with the high target at $136.00 and the low at $85.00.
| Analyst / Firm | Rating | Price Target | Implied Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | $136.00 | +69% |
| Jefferies | Buy | $125.00 | +55% |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $120.00 | +49% |
| Bank of America | Buy | $115.00 | +43% |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | $110.00 | +37% |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | $92.00 | +14% |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | $85.00 | +6% |
| Consensus (23 analysts) | Buy | $114.25 | +42% |
Oppenheimer’s $136 target is the most aggressive and hinges on international revenue scaling to 30% of mix by FY28. Jefferies anchors on Rhode’s gross-margin accretion. The neutral camp at Goldman and DA Davidson models a slower recovery in US mass growth and prices tariff pass-through risk. Our base case: if ELF delivers 18% revenue growth with a flat 27x multiple, the stock reaches $108 — a 35% total return, and squarely within the buy-rating band.
ELF Stock Competitive Landscape: Outrunning Private Label
The bear argument that ultimately matters for ELF stock is not quarterly guidance volatility — it is whether Ulta Beauty’s “Ulta Beauty Collection” and Target’s “Up & Up” private-label programs can replicate e.l.f.’s sub-$10 price architecture at scale. Through fiscal 2025 the answer was definitively no: e.l.f. grew US market share for the twenty-fourth consecutive quarter per Circana tracked-channel data, and management disclosed in the Q3 call that mass-retailer shelf space expanded 17% year-over-year despite Ulta’s private-label push. The category tailwind — Gen Z and Alpha shoppers migrating from prestige beauty to mass-premium — has proved structural rather than cyclical.
What differentiates e.l.f. from the private-label threat is brand velocity. Where private-label skus rely on in-store promotion and pricing, e.l.f.’s TikTok-native marketing generates earned media at roughly one-fifth of competitor CAC. The 2025 Rhode Skin acquisition — Hailey Bieber’s prestige skincare line — added an aspirational price-point tier and gave e.l.f. a repeat template for its category expansion into skincare, haircare and potentially fragrance. Analysts modelling ELF stock valuation upside typically credit Rhode with $400-600M in FY2028 revenue, materially shifting mix toward higher-margin prestige.
ELF Stock Short Interest and Institutional Ownership
Short interest on ELF stock sits at approximately 19.5% of float as of the latest Nasdaq settlement data — elevated by mid-cap standards and among the top decile of consumer discretionary names. This matters because the short-base has accumulated largely during the $146-to-$80 drawdown on the thesis that beauty category deceleration and margin compression from tariff exposure will force FY2027 estimate cuts. A single earnings beat or a tariff de-escalation headline could trigger meaningful short-covering; a further miss could extend the slide toward the $65 cluster of technical support.
Institutional ownership on ELF stock is heavy at approximately 92% of shares outstanding, with Vanguard (10.1%), BlackRock (8.7%), and State Street (4.3%) holding the three largest positions. Importantly, 13F filings through Q4 2025 showed net buying from Fidelity Contrafund, Capital Group, and T. Rowe Price small-cap growth strategies — suggesting active growth managers view the pullback as an accumulation opportunity rather than a signal to exit. Retail ownership concentration remains below 10%, which limits single-day volatility but also means the stock lacks the retail-driven short-squeeze dynamics that have periodically accelerated biotech and fintech names.
Bottom Line on ELF Stock Forecast 2026
Balancing the 42% consensus upside against a beauty-category deceleration cycle, ELF stock looks best characterised as a risk-balanced growth name rather than a deep value play or a momentum story. The combination of a 39.5% forward EPS growth algorithm, Rhode Skin optionality, and ongoing market-share gains against private-label incumbents argues for building a position on pullbacks toward $70-$75, with a phased scale-up toward a full position only after FY2026 tariff exposure is quantified in the July 2026 investor day. Investors with a two-to-three year horizon should anchor to Oppenheimer’s $136 target as a realistic upside case contingent on tariff de-escalation and Rhode integration meeting plan; more cautious investors should anchor to the $92 Goldman Sachs Neutral target as a realistic floor given current sector beta. Either framework leaves the ELF stock forecast 2026 conversation firmly in Buy territory on a risk-adjusted basis.
ELF Stock Forecast 2026 FAQs
Is ELF stock a buy in 2026?
Yes — ELF stock carries a Buy consensus from 12 of 16 covering analysts, with a $114.25 average target implying 42% upside from $80.42. The combination of 39.5% projected EPS growth, 71% gross margin, and a 27x forward P/E (the lowest multiple since the 2016 IPO) positions ELF as a reasonable risk-reward. The setup is most attractive for investors who can underwrite 18%+ revenue growth over a multi-year horizon and tolerate consumer-discretionary volatility.
Why is ELF stock down from $219?
The ELF stock drawdown reflects growth deceleration from 77% annual revenue growth in 2024 to guidance of roughly 18% for fiscal 2026, compounded by multiple compression from 55x forward P/E at the peak to 27x today. A Q4 2025 guidance cut on US mass-channel softness and tariff pressure triggered the final leg lower to the $48 range. The bounce to $80 reflects stabilised guidance and Rhode-acquisition optimism.
What is the ELF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus ELF stock price target for 2026 is $114.25, with a high target of $136.00 from Oppenheimer and a low of $85.00 from DA Davidson. The median price target among 23 analysts is $118.00. Targets imply 6% to 69% upside from the current $80.42 level, with the weighted consensus at +42%.
How does ELF stock compare to Ulta Beauty?
ELF stock trades at 27x forward earnings versus Ulta at 15x, reflecting ELF’s 18% revenue growth versus Ulta’s 3%. Gross margin is the key divergence — e.l.f. generates 71% gross margin on branded product sales, while Ulta Beauty runs a 39% retail margin. Investors seeking a beauty-category pure play with pricing power choose ELF; those wanting stable free cash flow with dividend capacity lean toward Ulta.
What are the risks to the ELF stock forecast?
Three primary risks: (1) US mass-channel growth dropping below 10%, which would compress the multiple toward 20x; (2) tariff pass-through failure, which could cut gross margin by 150-200 basis points; and (3) Rhode integration slippage, which would undermine the premium-skincare growth story. A macro consumer slowdown would amplify all three. Our stress scenario puts ELF stock at $65 if multiple compression and margin pressure combine.
What is e.l.f. Beauty’s exposure to tariffs?
e.l.f. Beauty sources approximately 80% of its products from Chinese contract manufacturers, creating meaningful exposure to US-China trade policy. Management has publicly committed to diversifying supply chain toward India and Vietnam through 2027, targeting roughly 50% non-China sourcing. In the near term, a 25% Section 301 tariff increase would reduce FY2027 gross margins by approximately 300-400 basis points before any pricing pass-through. Oppenheimer’s $136 ELF stock target assumes orderly tariff implementation with meaningful pricing flexibility; Goldman Sachs’ $92 Neutral target assumes a more adverse outcome with limited pass-through given the sub-$10 price architecture that defines e.l.f.’s positioning.
When does e.l.f. Beauty report next earnings?
e.l.f. Beauty reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings in late May 2026 (covering the January-March 2026 quarter), with the annual investor day scheduled for July 2026. Key metrics to watch include US tracked-channel market share versus Q4 2025, international revenue growth rate, and any update on Rhode Skin integration progress. The July investor day is expected to include initial FY2027 guidance which will frame the next leg of the ELF stock forecast 2026 debate.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct thorough due diligence and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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